Learning to live with Covid-19

Masks, proper ventilation and a new response protocol based on new metrics will be critical

In several parts of India, cases of Covid-19 are inching up. For instance, in Delhi, the average number of daily new cases over the past week was 201. Just 11 days ago (for the week ended April 3), this number was a mere 95. A similar trend holds in Delhi’s suburbs as well — the average in Gurugram has grown from 45 for the week ended April 3 to 114 in the past week. At present, the pattern is limited to a handful of urban pockets while at the national level, the number of new cases recorded every day continues to decline. At 986, the average of daily cases recorded nationwide in the most recent week is at its lowest in nearly two years.

This is not unexpected. In many parts of the world, cases have risen as restrictions are wound down.

The United Kingdom, France and Germany are countries that have recorded or are currently in the grip of an increase in infection rates after they opened up cities. In much of the world, except, notably, China, there is a sense of freedom not felt since early 2020. In almost all such places, cases have trended upwards but deaths and hospitalisation rates are in control. This is what is now regarded as “living with Covid”, a state in which some level of disruption may be inevitable, but in which hospitalisations are rare, and deaths, rarer still.

The key to living with Covid-19 — and the virus is here to stay — lies in striking balances. This will be needed because neither immunity nor evolution is linear or constant. Among the billions of people, there will be different sets whose immunity wanes at different rates. The virus itself, as seen in the past three waves, could still pack an evolutionary surprise. Experts expect the high level of immunity from previous infections and vaccinations to protect people from a large surge, but periodic resurgences are inevitable, much like it is for seasonal flu. In this context, it is important to remember that we are in a new normal, not the old normal. With threats from the coronavirus still being real, masks remain the most low investment, high-yield tool that can be made a part of this new normal, especially when indoors with strangers. Similarly, schools, offices and indoor recreational spaces need to think about ventilation, another key infection-prevention tool. Importantly, people must remember to take their booster dose as soon as they become eligible. And governments need to evolve a new response protocol based on new metrics (positivity rate, for instance, is no longer relevant), and the imperative of ensuring minimum disruption in lives and livelihoods.