‘Normal’ monsoon at 99% of LPA likely this year, says IMD

NEW DELHI: India’s weather office has predicted a normal monsoon, the fourth consecutive one, in 2022, a projection that, if it pans out, could cool inflation and also provide a boost to the rural economy.

Monsoon rainfall is likely to be “normal” at 99% of long period average (LPA) with an error margin of +/-5%, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its long-range forecast on Thursday.

This monsoon is likely to be the fourth consecutive one when it has been in “normal” or “above normal” range. Last year monsoon rainfall was 99% of LPA (normal); in 2020, monsoon was 109% of LPA (above normal); in 2019 monsoon was 110% of LPA (above normal). The last time India saw four consecutive years of normal or above normal monsoons was 14 years ago, between 2005 and 2008, according to IMD officials.

The June-to-September rainbearing system is often called the life-blood of the country’s economy as half of all Indians depend on farm-derived income and nearly 40% of India’s netsown area does not have access to irrigation.

A normal monsoon this year is critical as global food prices have hit record highs due to food shortage amid the Ukraine conflict. A sub-par monsoon

For millions in India, monsoon rains are a lifeline as nearly 40% of the country’s cultivated area

has no access to mechanised irrigation cuts farm yields, output and farm incomes, increasing India’s dependence on food imports.

A robust monsoon will help put a lid on food inflation by increasing domestic output of a variety of goods and commodities. Millions of farmers await the rainy season to begin summer sowing of key crops, such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals, lentils, gram and edible oils.

Domestic retail inflation quickened to 6.95% in March, a 17-month high, driven by a sharp jump in food prices, official data released on Tuesday showed. Food prices jumped 7.68% in March, against a rise of 5.85% in February.

Half of India’s farm output comes from summer crops dependent on the monsoon. For good farm output, the rains have to be not just robust but also evenly spread across states.

The new LPA for the monsoon season (June to September) is the average for the period between 1971 and 2020 which is 868.6mm. It will replace the earlier normal of 880.6mm based on 1961 to 2010