T20 World Cup: What India need to know about winning Down Under

NEW DELHI: Australia is hosting the T20 World Cup for the first time this year. It’s not quite 1992, when Australia and New Zealand held the ODI World Cup for the first time, and coloured clothing, the white ball, and day/night matches under floodlights lent an extra dimension to the game for the first time. But, in a T20 context, relatively bigger boundaries, and fast, bouncy Australian pitches should provide a different flavour to a tournament that is already seven editions old.

In the lead-up, emphasis has understandably been laid on adapting to the conditions as quickly as possible, particularly for teams from the subcontinent. In Sri Lanka’s shaky start to the qualifying stage – the Asia Cup champions lost to Namibia in the opening fixture in Geelong before rebounding to make the Super 12s – it’s apparent that the adjustment is not so straightforward.

In an effort to be completely ready for their opening match against Pakistan in Melbourne on October 23, India’s process of finalising their plans will entail rigorous number-crunching.

With India’s batting unit looking increasingly settled, it’s the bowling combination where there is room for manoeuvre heading into the big-ticket opener. As things stand, they seem likely to go in with three specialist seamers (all-rounder Hardik Pandya will bat at No 5 or 6 and be the fourth seamer), and two spinners. While Axar Patel will play the role of the second spinner given that he’s a useful left-handed batter in a team otherwise packed with right-handers, the choice of the main spinner is a toss-up between Yuzvendra Chahal and Ravichandran Ashwin.

Chahal played all three home T20Is against Australia while Ashwin replaced the leggie for the following series versus South Africa. The rationale was that the off-spinner would be more effective against a South African team with three lefthanders in the top six. Pakistan are likely to field two left-handers – Fakhar Zaman and Mohammad Nawaz – in their top six.

So, which way should India go in their first game?

The spin combination

This is where taking cues from data may come in handy. According to CricViz, 52.2% of the wickets by spinners in Australia since 2017-18 have fallen to leg-spinners, perhaps fitting for a land that has produced Shane Warne, Bill O’Reilly, Richie Benaud, and Clarrie Grimmett. In comparison, offspinners have accounted for 22.2% of the wickets. The corresponding numbers for left-arm orthodox and unorthodox spinners are 17.2% and 8.4% respectively.

Wrist spinners are anyway preferred in T20 cricket given the greater variety, but the numbers in Australia are skewed all the more in their favour. In the last Big Bash League (BBL) season – Australia’s domestic T20 league – Afghanistan’s Rashid Khan was the highest wicket-taker among spinners with 20 scalps in 11 games. The numbers make a case for Chahal, who will enjoy the extra bounce and the bigger boundaries that don’t allow batters to always get away with leading edges and miscued

10m

10m slogs. While spinners predictably get maximum reward for bowling on a good length – 44.5% of all wicket-taking balls in Australia in the last five years are in that zone – they have interestingly tended to err on the shorter side than full. And it’s often worked, with 21.6% of the wickets by spinners coming off short balls as opposed to 5.1% when the ball is pitched on a full length.

In India, conversely, spinners are rewarded for bowling a fuller length. In the middle overs, for instance, only 5.68% of the wickets by them are off short deliveries while full deliveries yield 39.77% of the breakthroughs.

“The main difference in Australia is the bounce and wrist spinners get the ball to go off the pitch a bit more,” said National Cricket Academy (NCA) batting coach Hrishikesh Kanitkar, who was part of the support staff for the recent home series against South Africa. “Wrist spinners use their wrist and fingers. That gives them an additional weapon. Offspinners just use the fingers and the shoulder. The main reason why leg-spinners are so good is that they can deceive the batter in flight. They are going to present difficulties in Australia, for sure.” strike rate against short balls is 162.

“So, the pitches usually have more pace and bounce in them,” Kanitkar said. “For a T20 game, the pitches can be good to bat on because you can trust the pace and bounce, which is what a batter usually wants. That is available there.”

Former India batting coach Sanjay Bangar said: “Two things we generally like the batters to do is staying a little upright as the ball bounces a little more and you have to expect the ball to hit slightly higher on the bat. Then, having a pre-loaded backlift because the wickets are so true that you can play through the line.”

Which deliveries should batters attack?

The current Indian batting unit should enjoy the conditions by and large. In Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul and Virat Kohli, India have a top three that isn’t averse to playing the horizontal-bat shots. Though Suryakumar Yadav and Hardik Pandya haven’t played a lot in Australia to know exactly how they will fare, they haven’t shown any visible discomfort while dealing with short balls so far. It’s a non-negotiable requirement of batting in Australia and perhaps a reason why someone such as Shreyas Iyer couldn’t force his way into the main squad.

The strike rates against different lengths bowled by pacers in the slog overs also offer valuable insight. Unless a pace bowler is certain of nailing the yorker – batters have a strike rate of just 111.3 against the yorker in the last four overs of an innings – he is perhaps better off trying to focus on a good length. While the strike rate against full, or overpitched, deliveries is 175.5 and short deliveries is 150.8, the number drops to 141.7 when the bowler lands the ball on a good length. In a game of fine margins, it can make a considerable difference.

“When a bowler is unable to pull off a perfect yorker in India, there’s not much bounce, and it may be difficult for batters to get the ball in the middle of the bat. In places like Australia, because there is bounce, a batter may find it easier to get under what is now an overpitched delivery,” Kanitkar said.

India’s matches in the group stage are spread across Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, and Adelaide. The average first-innings score at MCG in the last five years is 163, seven runs more than what it is in India. Among Australian venues, the Adelaide Oval is the highest-scoring with an average score of 169 while the Sydney Cricket Ground is the lowest at 155.

In a format where strategies and match-ups have acquired foremost importance, you can be certain that the players will use this data in their on-field decision-making; for, in the end, every little thing counts.