Hindustan Times ST (Mumbai) - Live
‘Climate plans will allow world to heat by 2.8°C’
NEW DELHI: The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement will most certainly fail to achieve the compact’s goal of keeping global warming under 2 degree Celsius (°C) over pre-industrial levels, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said on Thursday.
UNEP’s findings come after a NDC synthesis report of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which concluded on Wednesday that the current pledges by 193 parties will put the world on track for around 2.5°C warming by the end of this century.
The updated pledges submitted since COP26 in Glasgow take less than 1% off (only 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent) projected 2030 greenhouse gas emissions whereas 45% cut in emissions is needed for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, UNEP said.
Unconditional NDCs are estimated to give a 66% chance of limiting global warming to about 2.6°C over the century. With conditional NDCs (dependent on climate finance and technology support by developed countries) this figure is reduced to 2.4°C.
“Current policies alone would lead to a 2.8 degree C hike, highlighting the temperature implications of the gap between promises and action,” a statement by UNEP said.
“The window to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees is closing fast... Under current policies, the world is headed for 2.8 degrees of global heating by the end of the century. In other words, we are headed for a global catastrophe,” said UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres during the launch of the report.
The Paris Agreement said signatories would try to keep global warming at 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, and ensure that it does not exceed 2°C.
Guterres said Just Transition Energy Partnerships are being worked out with India, Indonesia,
South Africa and Vietnam. During COP26 last year in Glasgow, governments of South Africa, France, Germany, UK, and US announced a long-term Just Energy Transition Partnership to support South Africa’s decarbonisation effort and transitioning its economy towards cleaner energy sources. There have been talks of including India in such a partnership for low carbon development.
UNEP has highlighted that to meet Paris Agreement goals countries will need to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) by unprecedented levels till 2030.
Unconditional and conditional NDCs are estimated to reduce global emissions in 2030 by 5% and 10% respectively, compared to the 45% cut needed to meet the 1.5°C goal. For the 2°C target, a 30% cut is needed.
Such massive cuts would mean that we need a large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation in electricity, industry, transport and buildings. A global transformation to a low-emissions economy is expected to require investments of at least $4-6 trillion a year, UNEP estimated.
Of the 139 new or updated NDCs, just over half (74 NDCs from parties representing 77% of global GHG emissions) would result in lower 2030 emissions relative to the initial NDCs and 23 NDCs, from parties representing 9% of global GHG emissions, had communicated a new or updated NDC that would not reduce 2030 emissions relative to the previous NDCs.
UNEP lists India among the top seven emitters (China, the EU27, India, Indonesia, Brazil, the Russian Federation and the US) of global GHG emissions in 2020, the report said, although it added that India remains far below the world average at 2.4 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), in terms of per capita emissions.
On average, least developed countries emit 2.3 tCO2e per capita annually.
In comparison US’s per capita emissions are 14 tCO2e, followed by 13 tCO2e in the Russian Federation, and 9.7 tCO2e in China.