BJP’s winning streak doesn’t mean that Gujarat is homogeneous

BJP’s prolonged dominance in Gujarat politics might suggest that the state’s electorate is homogeneous in nature. This is not true. For example, while Scheduled Tribes (STs) are only 16.2% of the state’s population, according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2019-21, they are geographically concentrated. In seven of 33 districts of the state, STs are in a majority, which makes them electorally important in a first-past-the-post system. There is a similar divide in the urban nature of districts and their wealth profile. 41% of the state is urban, which would make it a “mixed” state (rural population between 40% and 60%) according to HT’s classification. However, at the district level, only six of 33 districts are “mixed” while 24 are rural (with more than 60% rural population) and just three are urban (less than 40% rural population). Similarly, the figure for the state taken as a whole suggests that the state is in the “very rich”

(in %)

category by HT’s classification (top 20% richest of India are the most over-represented wealth quintile in the state). However, only eight districts can be classified as belonging to the group. 12 districts are in the lower rung of “rich” category, two in the “middle” and “poor” category, and nine in the “very poor” category.