Hindustan Times ST (Mumbai) - Live
Current emissions may breach crisis levels by ’31
NEW DELHI: The world needs to immediately cut down emissions of greenhouse gases to almost as much as was emitted in 2020, a year when most countries spent months in lockdown due to the Covid-19 outbreak, a new analysis released at UN Climate Conference (COP27) said on Thursday, warning that key crisis thresholds may be breached as soon as 2031.
The Global Carbon Budget 2022, released during the summit at Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt, found that at current trajectories, there is a 50% chance that the planet will have warmed by more than 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels in just nine years, and by 2°C in 30 years.
To keep global warming under 1.5°C, or reach net zero CO2 emissions globally by 2050, CO2 emissions need to fall by 1.4 GtCO2 each year, comparable to the recorded fall in emissions in 2020.
The new report projects total global CO2 emissions fuelled by fossil fuel consumption will rise 1% compared to 2021, reaching 36.6 GtCO2 — above the 2019 pre-Covid 19 levels — indicating that global CO2 emissions continue to increase with no sign of relenting.
Projected emissions from coal and oil are above their 2021 levels, with oil being the largest contributor to total emissions growth, the report said, adding that growth in emissions from oil is likely due to the delayed rebound of international aviation following the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions.
This year, emissions are projected to fall in China (0.9%) and the European Union (0.8%), and increase in the United States (1.5%) and India (6%), with a 1.7% rise in the rest of the world combined.
The remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5°C has reduced to 380 GtCO2, which could be exhausted in the next nine years under current conditions. For 2°C, the remaining carbon budget is 1,230 GtCO2, which at this rate will be exhausted in 30 years.
The 2°C and 1.5°C thresholds have long been the global reference points for climate crisis scenarios that must be avoided. Once average temperatures surpass the 2°C point, coastal nations and cities will be flooded and agricultural economies of Asia and Africa would be devastated. A sharp drop in crop yields, unprecedented climate extremes and increased susceptibility could push poverty by up to several hundred million by 2050, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) projected in 2018.
The IPCC said the difference between limiting the rise by an additional 0.5°C over the 2°C target could lead to 420 million fewer people being exposed to extreme heatwaves, cut the risk of heavy rain and extreme drought, and reduce the risk of catastrophic flooding.
This year’s carbon budget analysis shows that the longterm rate of increasing fossil emissions has slowed. The averHT age rise peaked at +3% per year during the 2000s, while growth in the last decade has been about +0.5% per year. The research team — including from the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO and Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, said the dip is far from the emissions decrease we need but it’s a welcome trend.
“This year we see yet another rise in global fossil CO2 emissions, when we need a rapid decline. There are some positive signs, but leaders meeting at COP27 will have to take meaningful action if we are to have any chance of limiting global warming close to 1.5°C. The Global Carbon Budget numbers monitor the progress on climate action and right now we are not seeing the action required,” said Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research professor at University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences, in a statement.
“Our findings reveal turbulence in emissions patterns this year resulting from the pandemic and global energy crises. If governments respond by turbo charging clean energy investments and planting, not cutting trees, global emissions could rapidly start to fall. We are at a turning point and must not allow world events to distract us from the urgent and sustained need to cut our emissions to stabilise the global climate and reduce cascading risks,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study in a statement.
With a carbon budget of only 380 GtCO2 left for the next nine years, experts said time has come to ensure there is equitable consumption of the space. “Remaining budget must be used equitably and this means that 70% of the world, including India which has used less than 30% of the budget, must get rights over rest. This also puts a real question over who has the right to use fossil, including gas from Africa, in this decade,” said Sunita Narain, director general, Centre for Science and Environment.
had reported on November 8 that India also raised the issue of equitable use of remaining carbon budget at COP27. Measures to reduce carbon emissions must be guided by science and the principle that the carbon budget is a global commons, India proposed during a closed-door meeting on Tuesday, people aware of the matter said.
The stand signals India is pressing ahead on a contentious issue — that there be a distinction between the obligations of rich countries that have historically spewed the most amount of carbon emissions, and developing countries that now have a legitimate interest in improving the lives of their citizens in keeping with sustainable development goals.
“At the current rate, in less than ten years the world could blow through its chances of staying within 1.5°C of global warming. More than half of this damage was done before 1990 when economies like India started to develop. Even now, India’s emissions are rising from a low base compared to other large economies, and the average Indian’s emissions are a fraction of the European or American. Going forward, India is fortunate to have abundant renewable energy to fuel its growth, but needs timely finance to build the infrastructure to store and transmit this energy. Adoption of clean technologies by India will not just cut carbon but can also prevent millions of premature deaths due to air pollution,” said Ulka Kelkar, director of Climate Program, World Resources Institute.
The Global Carbon Budget report projects that atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach an average of 417.2 parts per million in 2022, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels. The projection of 40.6 GtCO2 total emissions in 2022 is close to the 40.9 GtCO2 in 2019, which is the highest annual total ever.
Coal emissions (41% of global emissions) are projected to rise 1% with rises in India, the European Union, and the rest of the world, but drops in the US and China, the report projected. Oil emissions (33% of global emissions) are projected to rise 2.2% and dominate the global rise in fossil CO2 emissions.
Rises in oil emissions are projected in all large regions except China, with the largest contributions from the rest of the world, India, and the US, and a smaller contribution from the European Union. Emissions from natural gas (22% of global emissions) are projected to decline 0.2% with a strong decrease in the European Union.
In India, which accounts for a projected 8% of global emissions, emissions in 2022 are projected to increase by 6%, driven mostly by a 5% increase in coal emissions. “Emissions from oil are up sharply, with a projected rise of 10%, but this returns them to about the 2019 levels. Emissions from natural gas are projected to decline 4% but contribute little to the total change as gas is a small part of the energy mix in India,” the report said.
In China, which has 32% of global emissions, emissions in 2022 are projected to decrease by 0.9%. Continued lockdowns have constrained activity and economic growth, with emissions projected to rise by 0.1% for coal and decline 2.8% for oil, 1.1% for natural gas, and 7.0% for cement.