Advantage BJP in Aurangabad?

Split in saffron camp may drive voters to BJP, AIMIM may divide minority vote

AURANGABAD: Nearly 25 years after the Shiv Sena first won the Aurangabad civic polls and established its base in the city and later in the Marathwada region, the party is up against it in these Assembly polls.

In Marathwada’s sole metro, where communal sentiments have dictated voting for the past 20 years, the 2014 poll battle is going to be within the saffron camp. For, the big question is whether the city’s majority will back the Shiv Sena and the legacy of Bal Thackeray or go with the Bharatiya Janata Party and the promise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Another question is who will the minority community – 39.2 % in the city – vote for?

The three seats in the city will witness a truly multi-cornered contest with six parties in the fray: the Congress, the NCP, the MNS, the Shiv Sena, the BJP and the Hyderabad-based radical All India Majlis-e-ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). So expect the winners to scrape through wafer-thin margins.

“For 25 years the Sena has controlled Aurangabad but the

condition of roads, basic amenities is dismal. Corruption is high. After the break-up, the BJP looks poised to make gains. It looks like the educated Hindu middle class as well as the emerging middle class will repose their faith in the BJP, mainly Modi,’’ said Jaidev Dole, political analyst and professor of journalism at Marathwada

University.

Dole predicts a Sena win in Aurangabad west seat, but says the results in city central and city east seats controlled by the Sena’s Pradeep Jaiswal and the former Congress minister Rajendra Darda look unpredictable.

Jaiswal faces his own former aide, Kishan Tanwani, who joined BJP on the day of filing nominations. Darda, who won the seat the last three times, could find the MIM poaching on his core minority vote bank.

In the city’s Muslim ghettos, the Congress is not a popular option despite the anti-modi sentiment. The radical AIMIM has caught the youngsters’ fancy; its videos are going viral in the mohallas. At a recent rally held by the MIM in the city, approximately 50,000 gathered to hear Akbaruddin Owaisi

“There is a sense of fatigue with the Congress and the NCP. The minority will largely back the AIMIM candidate because the Owaisi brothers are hugely popular among the youth. Their candidates (who include a former NDTV journalist) could destroy the Congress chances and even win a seat,’’ said Wase Patni, a Muslim businessman based in the city.