Majority mark

With a 34% share of the population, minorities may get to call the shots in polls early next year

GUWAHATI: Locating All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badruddin Ajmal is never a problem in his home town, Hojai, about 170 km east of Assam’s state capital. For, he and Ajmal Foundation are everywhere — posters and hoardings, schools, colleges, hospitals and madrassas.

The real surprise came when we entered the Ajmal estate, which has a carport housing about 20 vehicles, a pond to supply fish to the household, a lawn with pavilions, a palace, and an army palace staff.

The interiors of the house look like a huge durbar. At least 100 people were waiting for the leader to make an appearance. And when the cleric-perfumer finally did so, there was no rush, not a word. The leader always has the first right to speak.

Ajmal opened the discussion on the next assembly elections early next year with a dig at the new BJP state chief, Sarbananda Sonowal, who has a long history of agitating against illegal migration from Bangladesh.

“We’re happy that Sonowal has been sent back from Delhi. The more he campaigns against Bangladeshi infiltrators, the more Muslim votes will come our way,” he said. The AIUDF reportedly bats for mostly Bengali-speaking Muslims, who are now in majority in nine districts of Assam.

What’s more, both the Congress and the BJP’S efforts to get the Assamesespeaking Muslims on their sides have failed so far. Religion — not language — attracts them more, for now. The total Muslim population in the state now stands at 34%.

But when pointed out that might hurt only the Congress, he smiled. The Congress is going to war this time with a disadvantage -- anti-incumbency after 15 years of rule. State Congress chief Anjan Datta, however, is putting up a brave front. “We will win 70 of the 126 seats this time.” Datta thinks the AIUDF will be in the second spot.

The current party positions in the assembly are: the Congress 78, the AIUDF 18, the BPF 12, the AGP 10, the BJP five and others three, although there have been some changes in recent years due to defections and expulsions.

Political analysts say the BJP has a better chance this time. It bagged half the 14 Lok Sabha seats last year, prevailed in the local body polls later and took over two tribal councils this year. But BJP leaders admit in private that the the ‘Modi wave’, too, has ebbed a bit after the Bihar loss.

Now, Sonowal has been joined by Himanta Biswa Sarma, the Congress’ chief election manager till sometime back. Observers are sure that the poll battle will be a direct fight between Biswa Sarma and Ajmal.

The BJP is uncertain about getting the majority mark of 64 on its own. Biswa Sarma said, “Realistically, the BJP should emerge as the single largest party in Assam with the AIUDF in the second spot. Our prime rival is Ajmal, not the Congress.”

In fact, the polls may play out on the basis of language, religion and ethnic identities. For instance, the Bodos – who claim to have a population share of 12% — include all sections in the greater Kachari group. The Kacharis, previously called the Bodo-kacharis, are a community that includes several tribes residing all over the northeast.

Similarly, Assamese speakers include Ahoms and other communities seeking ST status as well as some already in the ST bracket. The share of Assamese speakers was 48.80% in 2001 and might hover around 47% in 2011 (the final data is not yet available). Of them, the BJP’S main support base, the Assamesespeaking caste Hindus could be 11-12%.

So, the AIUDF — a 35-seat haul is ‘realistic’ for it — and the tribal Bodoland People’s Front — the third largest party with 12 seats after the Congress and the AIUDF in 2011 — may hold the key. “Excluding the seats where the AIUDF and BPF are strong, 75-80 of the 126 assembly seats will be crucial for the BJP and Congress,” said Akhil Ranjan Dutta, an observer who teaches Political Science in Gauhati University.

Although no party is openly going for a pre-poll alliance, Akhil Ranjan Datta predicts that post poll, the Congress, the AIUDF and some smaller parties may be on one side and the BJP, the BPF and the AGP on the other.

AGP leader Prafulla Mohanta also predicted the same scenario. But the current chief of the party, Atul Bora, feels his party can rebound. “The Bihar elections have shown that regionalism will always be relevant in Indian politics.”