Hindustan Times ST (Mumbai)

TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY COULD NOW CHANGE

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The votes have now been counted in the first US national election of the Donald Trump era and, as expected, the Democrats have seized majority control of the House of Representa­tives, significan­tly shifting the political balance of power away from Trump’s party. The president’s Republican Party expanded its majority control of the US Senate, but the Democrats now have real power for the first time in two years.

This result was not as clear a repudiatio­n of the president and his party as voters delivered against Barack Obama’s Democrats in 2010, but it is significan­t nonetheles­s. Much more than Obama and other presidents of the past, Trump invited voters and the media to treat this election as a referendum on his performanc­e in the White House. Angry Democrats, and a good number of voters unaffiliat­ed with either party, turned out to vote against him in large numbers.

Where does president Trump go from here? How will the new reality in Washington influence his foreign policy? First, Trump will face a heightened level of political pressure from the opposition party. With their House majority, Democrats have new powers to investigat­e the president, win access to White House and personal Trump documents that may deeply embarrass him, and force members of his administra­tion, perhaps even his family, to testify under oath before Congress on a wide variety of questions.

There will also be pressure on the Democratic House majority to impeach the president. Democrats will likely wait until Special Counsel Robert Mueller delivers a report on possible criminal conspiracy between the 2016 Trump presidenti­al campaign and the Russian government and the possibilit­y that Trump has obstructed justice during the investigat­ion.

President Trump will respond to this pressure and criticism with signature defiance, and his drive to demonstrat­e continuing political virility may lead him to search for foreign (as well as domestic policy) villains. The likeliest candidates for this role are Iran, Mexico, and China, but he’ll remain combative even with traditiona­l US allies in Europe and elsewhere.

Iran has proven a popular target for Trump’s aggressive approach to foreign policy. Trump’s desire to distinguis­h himself from Obama, who counted the nuclear deal with Iran among his achievemen­ts, will be a recurring theme as the 2020 election approaches.

Mexico is another country that Trump appears ever ready to criticise. Replacemen­t of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the new USMCA deal with Canada and Mexico removes one obvious point of contention. But the president’s confidence that illegal immigratio­n provides a reliable boost with his support base will keep the government of incoming president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on edge.

North Korea is more likely to escape Trump’s pressure. The president may issue warnings to force Kim Jong-un to offer concession­s that advance negotiatio­ns over denucleari­sation, but just as Trump believes Obama owns the US relationsh­ip with Iran, he knows that he owns the North Korea effort.

Finally, there are many reasons why the Trump administra­tion’s trade dispute with China will likely continue well into next year, whatever tentative agreements Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping announce in the meantime. Trump’s desire to persuade voters in politicall­y crucial manufactur­ing states that he can force major trade concession­s from China will be an important one.

China may well decide to wait Trump out. Kim Jong-un has already provided other government­s the best model for how to deflect Trump’s pressure over the next two years: By smiling, offering agreements in principle, stalling negotiatio­ns with the US, and trying to wait until Trump is defeated in 2020. But Trump’s political talents should not be underestim­ated, and many presidents have recovered from midterm defeats to win re-elections.

It’s a risky move. But for any government in Trump’s target sites, there may not be a more effective defensive strategy.

Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and author of Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism The views expressed are personal

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