Why 2018 is critical for the Congress
management skills have improved, they are still playing catch up with the BJP, a political force which has taken micro level election management to new levels. And while Rahul Gandhi has transformed into an energetic campaigner, he still lacks the emotional connect that appears to come so naturally to PM Modi. Moreover, in almost all the battleground states, the Congress has to live with the reality of being a party with plenty of leaders but not enough boots on the ground.
If the Congress still has a decent chance of staying in the game, it is primarily because the BJP too is now overdependent on the Modi factor. When elections get localised, then the magic of the charismatic supremo starts to fade and the politics gets entangled in a slew of local contests. So far, the prime minister’s mass appeal has enabled the BJP to punch above its weight even in parts of the country where it was almost non-existent (Tripura being a classic example). But fatigue and arrogance can be a deadly mix, one which leaves the BJP in an increasingly vulnerable position in states where the party’s local leadership does not offer wholesome governance.
Which is why December 2018 offers the Congress its best, and last, chance to build some momentum heading into the 2019 general elections. If the Congress is unable to win at least two major states, it stares at the real prospect of being a totally deflated army heading into the national polls. By contrast, victory could make it a magnet for a broader anti-bjp coalition. It is, in a sense, the Congress’s Kapil Dev moment of 1983, one which will decide whether the mood of defeatism is enduring, or whether the party lives to fight another day.
Post-script: On the campaign trail in Rajasthan, a young Congress leader rather presciently remarked, “My biggest fear is that if we do well on December 11, our party will get so carried away that it will think that it has already won 2019, which will again be a very different election!” Truth is, when the patient is facing a lingering death in the ICU, the slightest sign of improvement is latched upon as evidence of a miraculous recovery.
Rajdeep Sardesai is senior journalist and author The views expressed are personal