BJP’S other ‘look east’ policy

Whether the BJP will be able to make up ground on India’s east coast will hinge on a few crucial factors. First, the BJP is unlikely to find a coalition ally in Andhra Pradesh before the 2019 polls. Second, the party must walk a fine line in Odisha and mi

is in flux. It is also the state where the BJP is arguably on its weakest footing. The incumbent AIADMK has been in disarray since Jayalalithaa’s December 2016 death divided the party.

For now, the two party factions have put aside their differences (allegedly with the support of the BJP), but the cracks are plainly visible. The party must also contend with its rival, the DMK, which stands poised to fill the gap presented by the AIADMK’S fracture.

The BJP, for its part, hopes to exploit this power vacuum, but it would need allies given its limited reach: the party retains a lone parliamentary seat in Tamil Nadu and earned just 5% of the state’s vote share in 2014. The best it seems the party could hope for is a postelection alliance with the remnants of the AIADMK, as the DMK has been a regular Congress ally.

IMPLICATIONS FOR 2019

Whether the BJP will be able to make up ground on India’s east coast to compensate for losses it sustains in former strongholds will hinge on a few crucial factors.

First, while the BJP is unlikely to find a coalition ally in Andhra Pradesh before the 2019 polls, it could stitch together an alliance following the general election. At present, there are rumblings that the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), which currently leads the opposition in the Andhra state assembly, would be open to a postelection alliance with the BJP. Both parties are opposed to the TDP, which recently left the NDA.

Furthermore, the leader of the YSRCP, Jaganmohan Reddy, might have incentive to curry favour with the Modi government because he faces federal corruption charges that the central government could ramp up or ramp down as it sees fit.

Second, the BJP must walk a fine line in the state of Odisha. Despite the fact that it is targeting BJD seats, the party also understands that it might have to bring the BJD on-board as a postelection ally. It is this delicate balance that explains why the BJP and BJD have seen a burst of cooperation, such as the latter’s decision to break from the opposition and support the BJP’S candidate for deputy chairman in the Rajya Sabha.

Because the BJD had previously been a part of the NDA, some within the BJP are optimistic that they can patch up old divisions. The catch is that this rapprochement is hard to envision if the two parties are waging bitter partisan battles in Odisha while cooperating in New Delhi.

Third, the BJP must find a way to make the 2019 elections a national referendum on Modi in some states but a state-by-state fight in others.

In states where the BJP and Congress are facing off or where regionalist parties hold less sway, the BJP stands to gain if it can make the election about Modi’s clean image, record of public service delivery, and strong leadership.

But in east coast states, where regionalist parties prevail, the BJP will have to contest elections on the basis of statespecific agendas. Getting this balance right will not be an easy task, and it is potentially an existential one. In 2019, the east coast could well be the gateway to the BJP’S second term in office.

Milan Vaishnav (@Milanv) and Jamie Hintson are with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This article is part of the ‘India Elects 2019’ series, a collaboration between Carnegie and the

Hindustan Times.