Who will win the battle of margins in Uttar Pradesh?

LUCKNOW: After his father Mulayam Singh Yadav filed his nomination papers from the party stronghold of Mainpuri last month, an excited Akhilesh Yadav had exhorted party workers: “Netaji should win with the highest victory margin in the country.”

The Samajwadi Party (SP) national president was beaming as Mulayam stood next to him, putting to rest all speculation on who he (Mulayam) would choose — son (Akhilesh) or brother (Shivpal) — if he had to side with one ( The two were locked in a bitter fight for control of the party in 2017 that eventually led to Shivpal’s exit). A senior SP leader had earlier said, “He will remain with the Samajwadi Party that he had founded in 1992.”

An emotional Mulayam said, “This is my last election.”

With no opposition from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it is a cakewalk for him. But it’s the victory margin that is the key.

Interestingly, 563 kilometres away in Varanasi, the campaign managers of Prime Minister Narendra Modi have given a similar call, fixing 700,000 as his victory margin. BJP spokesperson, Navratan Rathi, said, “We are striving hard to ensure PM wins by the highest margin in the country.”

After his show of strength before filing his nomination papers in Varanasi on April 26, Modi had given a subtle message to his party workers to ensure his victory at every booth.

In all, there are 1,800 booths in the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency.

In 2014, General VK Singh had the highest victory margin in the state when he won from Ghaziabad by 567,000 votes, followed by Bhola Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bulandshahr, who managed a margin of 421,000 votes. Third on the list was Sanjiv Baliyan of the BJP, who won Muzaffarnagar by over 400,000 votes.

Modi’s winning margin from Varanasi was around 371,000 (Aam Aadmi Party chief, Arvind Kejriwal, polled more than 200,000 votes, thereby reducing the margin).

Mulayam won from Mainpuri by 364,000 votes. From his second seat of Azamgarh, Mulayam’s margin was much lower: 62,304. In Modi’s second seat, Vadodara in Gujarat, the margin of victory was 570,000.

Going by the emotional connect of the voters with their candidates in both the constituencies, it is hard to guess who will win the battle of margins in 2019. While Varanasi takes pride in sending the country’s prime minister to the Centre, Mulayam too has a personal bond with this Yadav-muslim dominated constituency of Mainpuri.

Now, Azamgarh is also vying with neighbouring Varanasi in the battle of margins. The supporters of Akhilesh Yadav, who is fighting from the seat, are eyeing a huge victory margin in this Dalit-muslim-yadav dominated constituency.

Their confidence stems from several reasons. For one, the local muscle power of Ramakant Yadav, who has won the seat on SP,BSP and BJP tickets in the past, has now moved to the neighbouring Bhadohi constituency on a Congress ticket. Also, the BJP fielded Bhojpuri actor, Dinesh Lal Yadav alias Nirahua, a political novice. Though Yadavs have voted for the BJP in the past, they are unlikely to ditch Akhilesh, son of the tallest Yadav leader in the state, now that Ramakant Yadav is not in the fray in Azamgarh.

Moreover, Mayawati has urged Jatavs, a Dalit sub-caste, to support Akhilesh as they would have supported her. This appeal, the opposition alliance hopes, is going to consolidate the Yadav-muslim-jatav votes.

Others tall leaders who are expected to retain their seats with large majorities are United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson, Sonia Gandhi, in Rae Bareli and Union home minister, Rajnath Singh, in Lucknow.

In 2009, the five biggest margins in the state were Sonia Gandhi of the Congress (Rae Bareli, 372,000), Rahul Gandhi of the Congress (Amethi, 370,000), Annu Tandon of the Congress (Unnao,302,000), Varun Gandhi of the BJP (Pilibhit, 281,000) and Yogi Adityanath of the BJP (Gorakhpur, 220,000).

Prof DK Dwivedi of Lucknow University said, ‘Notwithstanding the claims and counterclaims of political parties, victory margins are most unpredictable.

However, they are important too as they determine the popularity of the leader.”

On the claim by Modi and Mulayam camps, he said, “Both are popular. Mainpuri is Mulayam’s traditional seat while Kashi (Varanasi) elects the prime minister.” CHENNAI:ALL India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) leaders are upset over the lack of interest its allies like BJP have shown in campaigning for the bypolls to four assembly seats in Tamil Nadu on May 19, people aware of the developments said.

The bypolls to 18 assembly seats were held along with state ’s 39 Lok Sabha constituencies in the second phase of the ongoing general elections on April 18.

The seats fell vacant after 18 lawmakers were disqualified in September 2017 for rebelling against AIADMK. Deaths of three lawmakers, including DMK chief M Karunanidhi last year, and disqualification of minister K Balakrishna Reddy after his conviction in a criminal case necessitated the bypolls to the four other seats. The AIADMK needs to win three of the 22 seats to reach the half-way mark of 117 in the 234member state assembly. It has a strength of 114 in the assembly while its current strength is 213.

Chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami and his deputy O Panneerselvan have been campaigning for the AIADMK. But no top leader of BJP, S Ramadoss’s PMK, actor A Vijayakanth’s DMDK and GK Vasan’s TMC have campaigned so far.

The AIADMK’S allies are believed to be upset over its lack of support for their LS candidates, according to people aware of the developments. An AIADMK leader said DMK’S alliance partners, including Congress leader P Chidambaram, have campaigned for its candidates. “For AIADMK, it is only Palaniswami and Panneerselvam, who are campaigning,’’ said the leader on condition of anonymity.

BJP’S state secretary, Karu Nagarajan, dismissed talks of any rift. He said the BJP’S leaders were busy campaigning for Lok Sabha polls elsewhere in the country.