Monsoon...

On April 3, Skymet Weather forecast below-normal monsoon, but on April 15, IMD forecast that there would be a “near normal” monsoon at 96% of LPA.

M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences (MOES), said at the time that the department expects a good distribution of rainfall across the country. IMD’S forecast probability however showed a moderate chance of a “below normal” monsoon (32%). The probability for “deficient” monsoon was 17%, “near normal”, 39%, and for “above normal”, 10%.

Rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA is considered normal, below-normal is 90-96% of rainfall , while below 90% is characterised as deficit. On Tuesday, Skymet Weather’s regional analysis suggested that monsoon rains over east and north-east India will be 92% of LPA, north-west India, 96%, central India, 91%, and the southern peninsula, 95%.

“All the four regions are going to witness lower-than-normal rainfall this season. It seems that the initial advancement of the monsoon over Peninsular India will be slow,” said Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet Weather.

IMD officials said they will issue an updated forecast in the latter part of the month and once again dismissed threat from the El Nino effect. “Weak El Nino conditions are persisting but it hasn’t gained strength, so our observations on its impact on monsoon are still valid. But a detailed assessment will be released later this month,” said KG Ramesh, IMD’S director general. El Nino is a weather phenomenon characterised by warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In El Nino years, the monsoon is usually weak and more episodes of heat waves are recorded in India.

DS Pai, senior scientist at IMD, Pune, said “Some of our models are showing that the El Nino conditions will weaken to neutral during monsoon, while some are showing that they may persist through the monsoon. We are, however, not expecting any major impact on monsoon rainfall due to this. We will announce our forecast update soon.”

Vidarbha, Marathwada, north interior Karnataka, Telengana, south-west Madhya Pradesh in central India; Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal in the east will be worst affected by below normal rains, according to Mahesh Palawat, vice president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet Weather.

Palawat also said that June 4 can be considered normal onset for the monsoon. “Three days after June 1 is considered normal onset. There is an 80% probability of El Nino conditions persisting during the commencement of monsoon and a 50% probability of El Nino conditions persisting in the latter part of July. So we are expecting slow advancement and below normal monsoon in the beginning of the season, but it will recover in August.”

The monsoon forecast is critical because at least 700 million people in India depend, directly or indirectly, on agriculture for a livelihood. And the health of the agricultural economy shapes the health of the rural economy. orously,” said a second RSS functionary on condition of anonymity.

In West Bengal in particular, where political violence has been reported and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has accused the ruling Trinamoool Congress of blocking its events , the Sangh cadre has raised the issue of “intruders” from Bangladesh and Myanmar “illegally taking over jobs and resources” in the state.

“The TMC government has been partial to the minorities. There are terror cells in large parts of the state and the security of the country can be jeopardised by illegal immigrants; we are raising these issues in public interest,” said a third RSS functionary from West Bengal, who asked not to be named.

Dilip Deodhar, an expert on the RSS (and who was once closely associated with the organisation) said the voter turnout figures notwithstanding, the Sangh is confident about BJP forming the government at the Centre.

“There are three views in the Sangh. One is that the BJP alone will get 272 seats (the half-way mark in the 543-member Lok sabha); the second is that the BJP and its allies, that is the NDA, will get more than 272 seats; and the third is that smaller parties who are not in the NDA will also extend support to the BJP in case of numbers falling short. But the one thing that the Sangh is absolutely confident about is Narendra Modi getting a second term as Prime Minister,” Deodhar said. provided US law enforcement information to conduct an investigation. It also said it had briefed human rights organisations to work with them to notify civil society.