JHARKHAND JOLT
BJP loses control of eastern state as JMM-CONG-RJD alliance seals majority in 81-member House
THIS IS ANOTHER INSTANCE OF A UNITED ALLIANCE OF NON-BJP FORCES, CAMPAIGNING ON LOCAL ISSUES AND PROJECTING A LOCAL LEADER, HALTING THE SAFFRON JUGGERNAUT IN STATE ELECTIONS
Modi congratulates Soren for big victory; Raghubar Das loses own seat, says defeat is his, not party’s
NEWDELHI: In a significant setback, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost power in Jharkhand on Monday as a united Opposition alliance of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) cruised to a majority in the 81-member state assembly The BJP’S chief minister Ragubar Das, who led the government for five years, lost his own seat to a party veteran-turned-rebel who contested as an independent candidate
The BJP’S defeat has been ascribed largely to local factors, though the outcome also reflects an emerging pattern in which the party is increasingly unable to defend power at the state-level, even as it remains dominant nationally The loss comes soon after the party’s inability to form the government in Maharashtra, and failure to secure an outright majority in Haryana
But the verdict is yet another instance of how a united alliance of non-bjp forces, essentially campaigning on local issues, and projecting local faces, has halted the saffron juggernaut in states
The JMM emerged as the single largest party with 30 seats; its key ally, the Congress, bagged 16 seats; and the RJD got one seat The BJP, which had won 37 seats in the 2014 assembly polls, saw its tally dip to 25 seats The All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), a former BJP ally that fought the state polls separately, won two seats Monday’s results were the best-ever performances in the state by both the Congress and the JMM
The BJP’S confidence early on Monday that it would emerge as the single largest party slowly gave way to disappointment Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated JMM’S Hemant Soren, the CM candidate of the opposition alliance, late on Monday “I thank the people of Jharkhand for having given the BJP the opportunity to serve the state for many years I also applaud the hardworking Party Karyakartas for their efforts We will continue serving the state and raising people-centric issues in the times to come,” Modi tweeted At a press conference in Ranchi, Soren thanked the voters of Jharkhand for their clear mandate, and promised to meet the aspirations of the state’s citizens
He also credited his father, Shibu Soren, for the victory and thanked leaders of alliance partners In response to congratulatory messages from other leaders, Soren tweeted, “This has been a battle to establish democratic will & socially inclusive Jharkhand”
There was a strong state-level context to the elections and the outcome is seen as a reflection of both the vulnerabilities of the BJP and the strengths of the Opposition
The ruling party began its campaign by making Das the CM face But as the campaign progressed, and independent reports and internal feedback suggested that there was growing anti-incumbency against the CM, the party’s publicity push centred on PM Modi The PM addressed nine rallies in the state, and Union home minister and BJP’S national president, Amit Shah, addressed 11
After Monday’s results, Shah tweeted: “We respect the mandate given by the people of Jharkhand We express our heartfelt gratitude to the people for the opportunity given to BJP to serve the state for five years The BJP will remain committed to the development of the state Congratulations to all the workers for their hard work”
However, the main theme of the election, for voters, was the quality and nature of the local leadership Das’s inability to take along the rest of the party’s state leaders and deep internal factionalism hurt, as did his unpopularity on the ground, as anecdotal reports revealed The failure to continue the alliance with AJSU in the electoral theatre also had costs, especially in terms of the narrative Das, who is understood to have had a major say in ticket distribution, also leaned on many turncoats from other parties, including those with alleged criminal antecedents, while denying opportunities to party workers, which created a negative perception among voters
There was also an element of identity politics that worked against the BJP The party had taken a risk by appointing a nontribal as chief minister in a state, which was carved out due to its tribal identity and where tribals were politically dominant But this, as well as a set of government policies, especially on land, appears to have alienated tribals The BJP was hoping for a sharp division of tribal votes, but this did not happen This is reflected in the outcome, where the BJP only won two of the 28 reserved tribal seats But the loss has gone beyond tribals to other social groups
The BJP’S attempt to focus the campaign on the decisions of the central government and national issues also did not pay dividends While Shah invoked the Supreme Court’s decision on Ayodhya and spoke of how the construction of a grand temple would begin at the site in four months, Modi defended the passage of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, or CAA, in the final two phases of the polls But this, it appears, was not a key determinant of voting choices Neither was Kashmir and the Centre’s decision to nullify Article 370 in August
On the other hand, the Opposition’s campaign was both united and focused
Despite a setback in the Lok Sabha polls, in which it won only two of the 11 seats, the JMM, the Congress and the RJD stuck to their partnership Hemant Soren, in particular, showed remarkable flexibility As other allies accepted him as the CM candidate, JMM conceded 31 seats to the Congress while contesting 43 seats of its own But this paid off, as the Opposition vote consolidated against the BJP
The election marks the emergence of Soren as a leader in his own right In the past, speaking to reporters, Soren has often spoken of how the JMM was still widely seen as a party of the agitation since it was behind the movement for a separate state; but now that statehood had been accomplished, his challenge was to convert it into a party of governance By leading the JMM to its biggest win so far, Soren has obtained from people a mandate for governance He has also succeeded in expanding the social base of his party to go beyond tribals to other caste groups in primarily rural, but also some urban pockets
The Opposition also refused to get involved in debates on national issues, while keeping up the critique of Das’s governance record — particularly with regard to unemployment, corruption, agrarian and tribal distress, and justice for the poor The JMM also promised 67% reservations to Scheduled Tribes, Scheduled Castes and other backward classes (OBCS), 75% jobs to locals in the private sector, and filling all government vacancies with locals, if elected to power It also committed to reserving tenders of up to ₹25 crore to Jharkhand locals, bringing in a land protection law, raising the minimum support price for paddy to ₹2,300-₹2,700, and a range of allowances for women and the unemployed
The new winners, led by Soren, will now soon have to get to the more urgent task of finalising a power-sharing deal and delivering on poll promises The BJP, for its part, will have to focus on its state-level vulnerabilities, reflected yet again in Jharkhand
Commenting on the verdict, Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow and director of the South Asia programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: “The Jharkhand results cap one of the worst weeks the Narendra Modi government has had since taking office in 2014 Sustained street protests, a spat with prominent Democrats in the United States, harsh international editorials — to this list, we can now add an electoral loss”
But Vaishnav also struck a cautionary note about interpreting the verdict “The BJP continues to lose ground in the states but the Opposition remains little match for Modi and the BJP nationally Hegemony — both ideologically and electorally — is entirely consistent with statelevel setbacks, as the example of Indira Gandhi’s Congress reminds us”