Pawar-thackeray synergy key to survival of MVA

“If he has said so then it seems we are on the right track Our government will last long,” Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar quipped last week when mediapersons sought his reaction to chief minister and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s remarks equating Delhi police’s action against students of Jamia Millia Islamia University to the Jallianwalla Bagh massacre during the British Raj

Though Pawar’s remarks were made in lighter vein, what he spoke about is the most important issue about the Thackeray-led Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government: The three parties remaining on the same track

The three-party government in Maharashtra could be formed because heads of two political parties — Pawar and Thackeray— came together out of their political compulsion The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had declared a war on Pawar to end his influence in Maharashtra politics It was extremely important for him to ensure a non-bjp government in Maharashtra On the other hand, Thackeray was miffed with the BJP for forcing him to play second fiddle and a veiled threat of splitting his party if he did not fall in line

The outcome of the Assembly election was such that the BJP was unable to form the government without the Sena and at the same time the three parties—sena, NCP and Congress —could reach the majority mark if they came together Once Pawar and Thackeray took the decision, there was no option left before the Congress: Either the party could officially join them or it could watch helplessly as a major chunk of its newly elected MLAS formed a separate group to support the SENA-NCP government as BJP was their common enemy The Congress chose the first option

But then, forming the government was the easier part for the three parties Running it in a challenging economic situation and with internal contradictions would be the difficult part And this is where the understanding between Pawar and Thackeray would matter

While insiders in Sena and NCP say the synergy between the two leaders would mean no hurdles for Thackeray in running the government, the BJP leaders in the state are predicting that the chief minister would be fed up with Pawar setting the agenda of his government sooner or later

Pawar has already started dictating terms to Thackeray, they say First, he suggested that the MVA government should take a stand on the issue of Citizenship (Amendment) Act (Caa)-national Register of Citizens (NRC), which would be in line with the eight other states that have opposed NRC

Further, he has asked Thackeray to set up a special investigation team for an independent probe into the Elgar Parishad case “In both cases, there are suggestions by Pawar but the message for Thackeray is that he should take action accordingly Whatever he thinks, Thackeray won’t have much of a choice We will watch how long he can do this,” says a top BJP leader

Thackeray’s close aides point out that the chief minister would have to do the balancing act given the fact that the partners in MVA have different ideologies The Sena’s backtracking on CAA (it voted in favour of the bill in Lok Sabha and then staged a walkout in Rajya Sabha) and its refusal to give up its stand on Savarkar could be the examples, they point out

The three parties will avoid unnecessary controversies since it is in their interest to ensure that the government completes its tenure If this government falls, there is only one option—a Bjp-led government and most probably with Fadnavis at the helm Pawar would not prefer that For Uddhav Thackeray, it is important that he completes the tenure as chief minister and that too without appearing as a weak chief minister of a three party coalition Besides, both of them will have to strengthen their parties and recover ground lost to the BJP in past five years

And if Pawar-thackeray remain on the same page, disagreements with Congress could be sorted out, say Thackeray’s aides