1L cases in city by June-end?

With the state crossing the mark of one lakh Covid cases on Friday, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is bracing for a similar scenario by the end of the month. While the civic body said the city may not necessarily touch the mark by June-end, it is ramping up medical infrastructure to handle one lakh cases, of which 58,000 are expected to be active.

According to BMC officials, if there is no sharp rise in the number of cases reported daily, the count could be 75,000 to 80,000 by the end of the month. On Friday, Mumbai reported 1,366 cases, taking the count to 55,451, of which 28,248 cases were active. Of the new cases, 29 were in Dharavi, taking the total of the area to 2,013 and toll to 77. Ninety new deaths took the city’s toll to 2,044.

BMC chief Iqbal Singh Chahal said, “By the end of June, we will be prepared to handle one lakh cases, of which 58,299 are likely to be active. However, it is not correct to say we will have that many cases by June-end, but we will be prepared to handle this load, if it comes.”

To handle such a spike, the civic body will have to double the number of existing ICUS, oxygen beds and ventilator units. BMC data shows that of the 26,897 active cases on June 10, 1,152 are occupying ICU beds, 3,905 oxygen beds, followed by 483 ventilators. The occupancy of ICU beds is 99%, oxygen beds is 75% and ventilators is 95%. “We are looking at double the number of cases, from the current 54,000, so the facilities will also have to be doubled,” said a BMC official. “By the end of the month, BMC plans to set up 1,700 ICU beds from the current capacity of 1,163.”

The civic body has 5,200 oxygen beds as of June 10 and plans to set up more than 9,000 by the end of the month. Officials said the capacity will be increased by co-opting more private and even smaller hospitals and expanding the existing field facilities. “Currently, 483 of the 507 ventilators are occupied. This also means that 1.79% of the total 26,897 patients need ventilators. By this logic, by month end, if we are preparing for 58,000 active cases, we should have at least 850 ventilators,” added the official.

The presumption is that over 39,000 patients would have recovered by June-end, up from the current figure of 24,209. The estimate is that of the 58,000 active cases, 26,000 will be asymptomatic and 19,000 patients will be treated in Covid centres and hospitals followed by nearly 3,000 in ICU and 10,000 in home quarantine. However, another BMC official said, “The exact trend will be known by June 23 or June 25, by when the impact of relaxations of lockdown will be fully felt.”

Dr Ramesh Yadav, a private health consultant, said, “BMC should also consider that several congested areas in the city have been breeding grounds for seasonal infections such as malaria, dengue and typhoid. We should also prepare for a number of other viral infections, along with Covid-19, with the onset of the monsoon.”

Meanwhile, 2,42,923 tests have been conducted in Mumbai so far and BMC has traced 9.91 lakh high- and low-risk contacts, as of June 10. BMC has screened 76.84 lakh citizens, including 3.27 lakh senior citizens.

Moreover, citizens can now get updates about the waiting period or availability of slots at crematoriums on BMC’S helpline 1916. The civic body in a statement on Friday said citizens can avail real-time updates, which will be obtained from the control room.

BMC also issued a statement that Tata Memorial Hospital in Parel has so far treated 176 patients suffering from both Covid-19 and cancer at the NSCI Dome Corona Centre in Worli. Of them, 126 have recovered and no deaths have been reported so far.

Also, with the rise in cases, six areas in P-N ward, which covers Malad, have been declared restricted zones, where only essential shops can remain open. According to BMC data, as of June 11, there are 1,683 cases in P-N ward.

Daksha Patel, local BJP corporator from Malad, said, “Areas such as Kokani Pada, Pimpri Pada, Appa Pada, Kranti Nagar, Shivaji Nagar and Tanaji Nagar that have a huge slum cover have been declared restricted zones. This is expected to bring down the number of cases.”