Monsoon slows down, onset over Delhi unlikely for 5 days

NEW DELHI: The south-west monsoon has slowed down and is unlikely to make onset over Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh or advance into the remaining parts of Punjab, western Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan over the next five days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.

The weather department previously predicted that the south-west monsoon was set to reach Delhi and most of northwest India by June 15, almost a fortnight ahead of schedule, due to a low pressure system building up over the Bay of Bengal. However, a dominant westerly wind pattern was now slowing down the advance of the monsoon over the region.

“Further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab is likely to be slow as large-scale features are not favourable and the forecast wind pattern by the numerical models do not indicate any favourable condition for sustained rainfall over the region during the forecast period,” IMD said in its bulletin on Sunday.

There was 41% excess rain over the country from June 1 to June 20. Even though the monsoon did not arrive over many parts of the country as scheduled, there was 83% excess rain over north-west India, 67% excess over central India, 28% over south peninsula and 12% over the east and north-east regions, according to IMD data. On Saturday, the monsoon advanced into parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, western Uttar Pradesh. The northern limit of the south-west monsoon was passing through Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar.

“For the next five days, we are not expecting the monsoon to make onset over Delhi and its neighbouring areas. This is mainly because of the westerly wind pattern which is weakening the monsoon flow. In fact, monsoon rains may start reducing over the west coast gradually mainly because no low pressure system or depression is developing over Bay of Bengal. Parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan, however, are getting very good rains now because of an interaction with westerlies. Models are presently not indicating favourable conditions for monsoon advance. We will be able to inform on the onset status after five days,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist, National Weather Forecasting Centre.

Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over east Uttar Pradesh Bihar during next 24 hours and a significant reduction in rainfall activity is expected after that, IMD said. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is also very likely over Uttarakhand during the next 24 hours, it added.

“At the moment, we cannot say when the monsoon will arrive over Delhi. Rainfall is likely to decrease from tomorrow over the region because of a trough in the westerlies. It will slow down the movement of easterly winds. Monsoon has already covered parts of west Uttar Pradesh; only Mathura, Bulandshahr, etc, are left. So once monsoon advances, it will cover Delhi also,” said Kuldeep Srivastava, head, regional weather forecasting centre.

The monsoon usually arrives in Delhi by June 27-28.

The south-west monsoon arrived two days late at Kerala’s coast on June 3 this year, and it picked up pace soon after and began sweeping across the country several days ahead of schedule.

Experts previously said it may cover the entire nation about a fortnight before its normal date of July 8.

However, it later slowed down over western Uttar Pradesh, delaying the advance into Delhi.

IMD PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED THAT MONSOON WAS SET TO REACH DELHI BY JUNE 15