On the national stage, the rise of regional forces
The victory of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the West Bengal assembly elections has proved a shot in the arm for regional parties, many of whom want to expand their footprint. Delhi’s chief minister (CM) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal is looking to increase AAP’S presence in Gujarat, and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee could well be looking at a bigger role on the national stage.
One reason for these aspirations — of regional parties seeking a bigger role in national politics — is the sense of discontent and dissent in the two major pan-india parties, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The Punjab Congress is roiled in factional dissent, and Rajasthan Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) Sachin Pilot and his followers are in ferment over their concerns not being addressed by the party leadership. There is discontent among Congress MLAS in Bihar and Jharkhand while in Maharashtra, Congress leader Nana Patole has stirred trouble with his remark that his party would go it alone in the next election.
The Congress leadership seems to have lost touch with the situation on the ground. Take the example of the Manipur and Goa assemblies where there has been no clear mandate for the last five years. The Congress did not seize this opportunity to make its presence felt, leaving the field wide open to the BJP.
In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh, the Congress did well and formed governments after the assembly polls which were held before the Lok Sabha elections. It should have then chosen younger generation leaders like Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan and Jyotiraditya Scindia in MP to take charge. For reasons best known to itself, the party leadership chose not to. Today, Scindia has added heft to the BJP in MP and Pilot may well chart his own course if he is ignored much longer.
The BJP has won over another Congress leader, Jitin Prasada, even though he lost three consecutive elections. The BJP sent out feelers to him during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but he stuck with the Congress. Now, the BJP will use Prasada, a Brahmin face, to woo the community in the upcoming assembly elections in several states. Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is another example of how people who were considered insignificant and ignored by the Congress leadership, have been utilised effectively by the BJP.
This, however, does not mean that it is all smooth sailing for the BJP. The results in West Bengal have changed equations. Several leaders who had left the TMC for the BJP have abandoned the saffron party and gone back to the TMC. There are also rumours of discontent with the state BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh (UP). This has gained currency with a recent meeting of Nirbal India Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) party leader Sanjay Nishad and Apna Dal Member of Parliament (MP) Anupriya Patel, both influential BJP allies in UP, with Union home minister Amit Shah.
The BJP in Karnataka too seems to be going through a rough patch. CM BS Yediyurappa has had to publicly admit that he would have his seat only as long as the party’s high command wanted this. Across states ruled by the BJP, dissidents and those with ambitions to higher positions are voicing their dissatisfaction.
Regional parties are seeing more opportunities opening up, thanks to the infighting within the Congress and the BJP. Take another example. There was a revolt in the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) with five out of six MPS rejecting the leadership of Chirag Paswan and choosing his uncle, Pashupati Paras, as their leader. The BJP has been chipping away at the LJP for years, but Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) is said to be the driving force behind the split in the LJP as he perceived the party under Chirag Paswan to be at cross purposes with his leadership in the state.
Various factors favour regional parties over national parties today. In many of the recent assembly elections, voters have preferred regional parties and local satraps over national parties. The Delhi elections were held immediately after the Lok Sabha elections. The Capital, which had given all its Lok Sabha seats to the BJP, voted decisively in favour of AAP in these polls. This was repeated to some extent in West Bengal. The second reason is that some regional satraps have understood the BJP’S political playbook and they are using this to their advantage.
This is why they believe that, with the right combination of strategy and coordination, they can make inroads into the political power structure on the national stage. Assembly elections are slated to be held in several states in the next two years and will prove to be a litmus test for many regional parties and their national aspirations. However, the question will remain whether this is possible while Modi and Shah are in power.