Early monsoon likely, heavy rain in Andaman soon: IMD
NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon, which usually arrives in Kerala on June 1, marking the onset of rains critical to Indian agriculture and the rural economy, will likely arrive slightly early over Kerala, and, based on its current progress, is a week ahead of schedule.
It is already advancing towards South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal, and will reach these locations by May 15, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.
Widespread light to moderate rainfall is likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next five days and isolated heavy rain from May 14 to 16, it added.
Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50kmph gusting to 60kmph is also likely over South Andaman Sea on May 15 and 16, it said.
The southwest monsoon normally arrives over Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 22.
“Monsoon is expected to reach
South Andaman Sea around May 15. It is on time because it is normally expected to reach Port Blair around May 20-22. Monsoon can always arrive 1-2 days early. Westerly winds had strengthened even before Asani had formed. Cyclone Asani was a transient system and the westerly burst helped it develop. Westerly winds strengthened further after it developed,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD. “In one-two days, we will also give the forecast for monsoon arrival over Kerala.”
IMD’S extended range forecast published on Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology’s monsoon page shows widespread rain over Kerala between May 20 and 26.
“Monsoon update: Good News! @Indiametdept extended range forecasts consistently suggest favourable conditions for an early monsoon onset over Kerala & its northward movement. Pl watch out @Indiametdept official forecast scheduled on 15 May for the exact date of monsoon onset,” tweeted M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
“IMD’S extended range forecast indicates slightly early arrival of monsoon over Kerala. But we have to wait for the statistical model forecast . Cyclone Asani has managed to pull the monsoon winds forward which can be seen in the satellite images also but now we have to see if the winds can sustain on their own. Let’s wait till remnants of Asani disaggregate,” said DS Pai, director at the Institute of Climate Change Studies, Kerala, and a former scientist at IMD.