Study on link between India temp rise and climate crisis in the offing

CANDOLIM: Whether extremely high temperatures seen in India in March and April this year can be directly attributed to humaninduced climate change, and to what extent, would be revealed in a study in the next 1-2 weeks by the World Weather Attribution network, a global collaboration of climate scientists.

The network is expected to provide clues on how the climate crisis could have led to such extreme weather in the subcontinent, scientists Sarah Kew of Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Institute and Robert Vautard, director, Institute Pierre-simon Laplace said at a workshop on heat stress on Saturday. There is only a one in a hundred chance of such a heatwave spell occurring every year, they said, stressing that the event was rare because of large area that was affected, unusually long duration and early onset in spring.

There were intense heatwave spells from March 11 to 19, March 27 to April 12, April 17 to 19, and April 26 to 30, according to the India Meteorological Department. March this year was declared as the hottest in 122 years since the weather bureau started maintaining records.

The network is studying the 2022 heatwave event because of its large-scale impacts, such as crop damage, forest fires, power shortage, coal crisis, large rain deficit, school closures, and record temperatures in many weather stations. They are using five climate models to delve into the reasons.

“IMD has been saying that the intensity and frequency of heatwaves are increasing and expected to increase further. It should not come as a surprise to us,” said RK Jenamani, who participated in the workshop organised by Climate Trends, a climate communications organisation, on Saturday in Goa.

Meanwhile, further heatwaves are likely over many parts of northwest India in the next two days, IMD has warned. Severe heatwaves are likely in many parts over Rajasthan on Sunday, it said.