Delhi needs to go beyond boundaries to address rapid peripheral growth
With a population of about 2.9 crore, Delhi is set to overtake Tokyo to become the world’s largest urban agglomeration within a decade, as projected by United Nation’s Population Division (UN- WUP, 2018). This data rightly refers to Delhi’s true agglomeration, which includes adjoining cities such as Ghaziabad, Gurgaon and Faridabad.
Studies by the World Bank indicate the peripheries of India’s largest cities are growing rapidly in manufacturing jobs, high-tech and other emerging industries. With companies, factories and offices coming up or shifting to rural areas adjacent to the big city, people are moving out from core city areas, creating complex networks of interdependence between city, suburb and region.
But this growth is characterised by a lack of public amenities and basic services (such as water and sewerage systems), lack of structured and connected roads, increasing travel distances and traffic congestion, informal housing and self-provisioning of services. This makes suburban growth inefficient, stressful and unsustainable. Gurugram in the National Capital Region is a typical example of this reality.
SUBURBAN POLICY
Delhi is set to revise its master plan, which is restricted to Delhi Development Authority (DDA) limits. Such limitations do not plan for Delhi’s true agglomeration and dynamic growth.
Our research indicates the current population of 2.9 crore will increase by 1.5 times to 4.4 crore by 2050, while Delhi’s built-up area will increase by 2.5 times. This means, today’s 2,210 sq km of built-up area will increase to 3,500 sq km in 2030 and 5,600 sq km in 2050. Simultaneously, the GDP of the agglomeration, which is about ₹2,00,000 crore, will quadruple to ₹8,60,000 crore by 2030 and grow by 44 times to ₹92,80,000 crore by 2050.
This growth is set in the backdrop of major challenges such as low technical and administrative capacities, severe resource constraints (both natural and fiscal) and high costs of both land and labour. To achieve sustainable urbanisation and a better quality of life, there is a dire need for Delhi to move from a jurisdictionally-limited master plan to address on ground ‘suburbanisation’, which is applicable to a 50-km radius from the city centre.
Delhi’s Master Plan should incorporate these aspects:
Protecting, maximising natural resources: Most urban areas are water scarce and building on natural valleys and drains will exacerbate drought and flood. Environmentally sensitive areas should be mapped at the macro scale for conservation and areas more suitable for urbanisation must be identified to help guide sustainable growth.
Dynamic growth through local area plans: Local plans, town planning schemes or land pooling schemes are a definitive way to ensure land is planned and serviced at a micro scale. Big data analytics through satellites can track built-up-area growth in the peripheries alongside on-ground information to build models to predict the most dynamically growing areas. Allowing deployment beyond statutory master plan boundaries is critical.
Infrastructure planning : Disruptive technologies and an everchanging global context makes it difficult to predict what jobs will be relevant in future and how to future-proof skills. It will be a good bet to initiate coordinated strategic projects of infrastructure that promotes dynamic economic activity that connects to the larger region .
Equity considerations: Income disparity segregates people to live between formal and informal settlements. There has to be a strategy to allow for more community engagement and equitable redevelopment. All efforts should be made to reduce displacement, provide services to peripheral urban villages and reserve land for affordable housing.
Our analysis indicates about 66% of the urban built-up area of India’s top-20 urban agglomerations today falls outside of the primary city’s limits. While a true suburbanisation plan and strategy will require changes at policy levels, the Delhi master plan can lead the way to address the on-ground realities of contiguous urban extensions as it operates as one large city. (Rejeet Mathews is Head Urban Development and Madhav Pai is Director, from the WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities.)