The other grand alliance

Since replicating 2014 isn’t easy, BJP is quietly forging coalitions

Akey campaign plank of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is that it can provide stable leadership as opposed to a chaotic “grand alliance” of the opposition. But here is the irony. The BJP may have had a majority on its own in 2014, but it still runs a coalition government. More significantly, it is attempting to maintain and widen this alliance, repair bridges with sulking partners, and prepare for a post-poll landscape where it may need forces not currently a part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Even as the attention is on the opposition “mahagathbandhan”, the BJP’S quieter coalition-building merits attention.

There is a realisation in the top ranks of the party that replicating 2014 is difficult. This led the Narendra Modi-amit Shah combine to become far more pragmatic. The first sign of this was in Bihar, where Nitish Kumar demanded a respectable share. For the BJP, which had won 22 of the 40 seats in the state, this meant scaling down its ambition. Yet, it agreed to contesting only 17 seats, and giving the same number to Mr Kumar. Similar signs are now visible in Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena has been an old ally, but few have been as critical and bitter about Mr Modi and Mr Shah as its leaders. Recognising that a combined Congressnationalist Congress Party challenge would be difficult to meet and a triangular contest harm the party, the BJP went the extra mile. It gave 23 of the 48 seats to the Sena in the Lok Sabha, and an equal number of seats in the assembly. A similar exercise in coalition building was witnessed in Tamil Nadu too, where the BJP is weak and knew it needed the AIADMK and the PMK.

It is not just formal alliances. The BJP is also keeping channels of communication open with three prospective partners— the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi in Telangana, and the YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh. These outfits cannot ally with the BJP before polls but could provide a cushion if numbers fall short. The BJP may have a PM face that the opposition lacks. It may also win more seats than any other party. But the contest in 2019 will be between two broad coalitions. The BJP is stitching its own even as it seeks to discredit the one of the opposition.