Mamata’s foray could prevent consolidation of the Hindu vote

According to the 2011 census, Muslims comprised of 27% of West Bengal’s population, lower than the proportion of Muslims in only one other Indian state, Assam. Jammu & Kashmir, the only Muslim-majority state in India in the 2011 census, is now a Union Territory. With the BJP’S rising graph, the 2021 elections will perhaps see sharp communal polarisation with Muslims uniting behind the AITC to prevent the possibility of a BJP government. The BJP is hoping to create a large counter-polarisation of Hindus. Banerjee’s decision to contest from Nandigram could be an intelligent strategy. While Purba Medinipur, the district where Nandigram is located, has only 14.6% Muslim population, Nandigram has a larger share of Muslims. The 2011 census gives a religion-wise breakup of population at the level of blocks and census towns. Data for Purba Medinipur has religious composition of population for blocks of Nandigram-i, Nandigram-ii and the census town of Nandigram. Muslims had a population share of 34%, 12.1% and 40.3%, respectively in these census units.

To be sure, it is not necessary that the Nandigram AC has a complete overlap with these three census units. However, a look at past three election statistics for Nandigram suggests that the Muslim vote is an important component in this AC. In 2006, both the winner (CPI) and runner-up (AITC) candidates from this AC were Muslims, and the victory margin was just 3.4% of the total votes polled. In 2011, the AITC fielded a Muslim who defeated a Hindu candidate from the CPI by a margin of 26% of total votes polled. Suvendu Adhikari’s vote share in 2016 was seven percentage points more than the AITC’S 2011 vote share, even though the CPI fielded a Muslim candidate. This suggests that Muslims have been an important part of the AITC’S support base in this AC. To be sure, AC boundaries in 2006 and the subsequent elections could have changed because of the 2008 delimitation. Had Banerjee not contested from Nandigram, the AITC would probably have ended up fielding a Muslim candidate, which would have helped the BJP in pushing for a Hindu consolidation not just in Nandigram but in contiguous regions as well.