NSO revises economic estimates, puts growth for FY2019-20 at 4%

TE ESTIMATES FOR 2019-20 IMPLY THAT THE PROJECTED CONTRACTION OF 7.7% IN 2020-21 WILL INCREASE TO 7.8%.

NEW DELHI: The National Statistical Office (NSO) released revised estimates of GDP data for fiscal years 2017-18 to 2019-20 on January 29. This is a standard practice with national accounts data. The first revised estimates put GDP growth for 2019-20 at 4%, 20 basis point lower than the provisional estimates of 4.2% growth released last year. This implies that the projected contraction of 7.7% in 2020-21 will increase to 7.8%. The second and third revised estimates of GDP growth for 2018-19 and 2017-18 are now 6.5% and 6.8% respectively. GDP growth in these two years according to earlier numbers was 6.1% and 7%.

The revised estimates for 2019-20 have reduced growth in primary and secondary sectors while tertiary sector estimates have been revised upwards. Gross Value Added (GVA) in the secondary sector, which includes industry, now shows a 1.1% contraction in 2019-20 compared to a 0.7% growth in the provisional estimates. Tertiary sector GVA , on the other hand is expected to have grown at 7.2% instead of the 5.5% projection earlier.

The NSO press release says that the 2019-20 estimates for corporate sector might be significantly revised again. This is because there were reduced corporate filings in 2019-20 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.