What lies ahead

Daily new cases being reported in India at present are only around 12% of the country’s peak. India has so far not seen a second wave of infections unlike most other big countries. New cases in the US stopped dropping after the first wave when the new cases were 64% of the first peak (and the second wave began). In Brazil, the third most affected country by case count, cases stopped decreasing when they reached 29% of the first peak (and the second wave began). This figure was 43% in Russia. Compared to them, India’s new case tally has so far seen a significant drop. But this should not make anyone complacent. This is because there are other examples such as the United Kingdom and France where cases after the first peak dropped to as low as 7.3% and 2.4% of their first peaks before rising again, ultimately overtaking peaks seen in the first wave. To be sure, the situation in India at present is very different – there is an ongoing vaccination drive and a significant share of population in big cities has reportedly developed immunity – and the chances of a second wave may be lower than the example cited above. But why be sorry later, when one can be safe now.