Delhi to cover 2.1mn in 2nd leg of vaccinations

NEW DELHI: There are roughly 2.14 million people in Delhi who need to be covered as part of the ongoing drive to give coronavirus vaccines to the most vulnerable sections of the general public, authorities in the Capital estimate, projecting a period of two to three months in which most of these people may get at least their first doses.

The number is roughly half the 4.2 million target previously estimated, when authorities believed the age criteria would be lower at 50 and above, and more pre-existing illnesses would be included in the list of conditions to qualify a person to get shots in this phase.

Instead, the drive now covers those above 60, and identifies a list of 20 specific comorbid conditions that will allow anyone above the age of 45 to get doses.

According to officials who asked not to be named, the number is an estimate, and final numbers will depend on the number of registrations that happen. “For the third category of people being vaccinated, the new CO-WIN portal depends on self-registrations or bulk registrations. This is what we think the number will be — but the final number will depend on how many people come forward, get registered, get vaccinated,” said a senior district official, asking not to be named.

Delhi’s health minister said these people are likely to be cov

ered by summer. “For the beneficiary group in Delhi comprising people aged over 60 years and those in age group 45-59 years with any of the 20 comorbid conditions specified by the Union government, the first dose should be covered in two to three months,” Delhi health minister Satyendar Jain told HT.

According to estimates for

Delhi, there are 1.22 million people between the ages of 60 and 69 years, 0.67 million between the ages of 70 and 79, and 0.23 million over the age of 80 years, who are currently included in the priority list.

Additionally, the number of people eligible because they have one of the 20 medical conditions that put them at higher risk if they have Covid-19 is expected to be around 22,000. “We estimate that the people with comorbidities will be around 1% of the beneficiaries above the age of 60 years. This is because the comorbidities listed are severe ones and most of the people who suffer from it are over the age of 60 years,” said the second official quoted above.

On an average, Delhi has been carrying out 19,236 vaccinations per day over the last week. As on Tuesday, the city has 308 centres, each of which can give doses to 100 people a day. The government is planning to add 100 more, raising the daily capacity to over 40,000, a second district official said, asking not to be named.

The government’s target is to eventually scale this up to 1,000 centres. According to Union government figures, over 15 million doses have been given to people across India since vaccinations began on January 16. Since registrations opened on March 1, roughly five million sign-ups (each has a provision to register up to four people) have been done by people who qualify under the age or pre-existing illness criteria.

Experts say if people in these vulnerable groups are vaccinated, it will help bring in a drastic drop in hospitalisations and fatalities. “We have heard Dr Paul (NITI Aayog member) say that 80% of the Covid-19 deaths in our country were happening in people over the age of 50 years. Now, we do not know what proportion of these deaths happened among those between the ages of 50 and 59,” said Dr Lalit Kant, former head of the department of epidemiology at the Indian Council of Medical Research. “In any case, the lowering of the age among the comorbid people is likely to take care of those most at risk of severe infection and death. So, even if we are able to cover these people quickly, it should reduce the number of hospitalisations and deaths in case there is a surge in the number of infection,” he said.

The projection ties in with the experience of other countries. In a report on Monday, UK’S Public Health England said a single shot of either the Oxford-astrazeneca or the Pfizer-biontech vaccine reduces the chance of needing hospital treatment by more than 80%.

India too uses the Oxford-astrazeneca vaccine, which is given to people as Covishield, the version made domestically by Serum Institute of India.

“The age cut-off is different in different countries – for example, it is 65 years in the United States. We know that the mortality is higher among the higher age group. It is just a matter of prioritisation. Our aim is to prevent as many deaths as possible,” said Dr GC Khilnani, former head of the department of pulmonology at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS).

According to the second official quoted above, authorities are focussing on initial hitches of rolling out the drive to the first of the general population. “For now, we are just keeping an eye on the problems and challenges faced by the vaccination sites as we open it up to the general population. Once the teething troubles have been taken care of, the pace of vaccination will go up. The government is aiming to add 100 centres later this week or early next week – this will include more sites at the existing hospitals and additional hospitals being taken on board,” said this person, while adding that for now, dispensaries and clinics will not be included.

The 308 sites in Delhi are located in 192 hospitals – 56 government and 136 private ones (which can charge the beneficiaries ₹250 per shot).

The estimates of the priority population are based on data from the several door-to-door surveys that were conducted during the surveillance for Covid-19 cases in the city, as well as information from voter registration records and the last socioeconomic survey. “We do not have a definite number yet because during the surveys conducted by us, people were asked for various comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease. But the list released by the central government has several conditions combined together or requirements such as people should have diabetes for more than 10 years,” the first official quoted above said. Dr Puneet Mishra, professor of community medicine at AIIMS, said, “I cannot comment about the exact number. However, there is a large proportion of people who have diabetes and hypertension in our country. And, contrary to what happens in the West, Indians tend to get these lifestyle diseases early on — in the 40s and 50s in comparison to 60s in the West.” Dr Khilnani added: “Nearly 40% of the people in the age group of 45 and 50 years would have diabetes and hypertension. It is extremely common. However, it is not possible to vaccinate so many people at present so there was a need to fix an inclusion criteria.”