Covid-19: What you need to know today
The seven-day average of new deaths in the US was 610 on May 16, according to the New York Times database. The seven-day average of new cases was 33,041. That translates into a Case Fatality Rate (recorded deaths/reported cases) of 1.8%. The corresponding numbers on March 16 were 1,306 and 54,949 for a CFR of 2.4%. The ratio fluctuated before that period. For instance, on February 1, these numbers were 3,160 and 146,550 for a CFR of 2.15%; and on January 9, they were 3,189 and 254,002 for a CFR of 1.25%.
Barring unfortunate accidents caused by the US CDC’S recent guidelines on masks, most experts believe that this number will fall sharply in the coming weeks (many of the deaths being recorded now, they point out, are of people ailing for some time). Indeed, according to the NYT database, the seven-day average of hospitalisations was around 36,000 last week, a level last seen in September 2020. The US’S overall CFR is around 1.8%, and the ratio is soon expected to go below that. The recent drop can be attributed to vaccines. It isn’t just the US. In the UK, the seven-day average of new cases was 2,274 on May 16 (again, according to the NYT database). The seven-day average of deaths was 11. That translates into a CFR of 0.48%. That needs to be compared with the UK’S overall CFR – 2.9%. On February 1, the corresponding numbers were 18,607 and 406 for a CFR of 2.18%. According to data from the UK government, fewer than 1,000 people were in hospital on account of Covid-19 as of last week; of these, 129 were on ventilators.
Again, the drop can be attributed to vaccines.
In the UK, 59% of those eligible, have received one dose of the vaccine, and 38% both. In the US, 61.1% of the adult (over 16 years) population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 46% both.
That lengthy preamble is critical in the context of India’s own good news – a 16% fall in the weekly average of new infections for the seven days ended Sunday, and a dip in active cases (as reported by Jamie Mullick in Monday’s HT). On Sunday, for instance, India recorded 281,911 new cases, the lowest in 27 days, though the number may have been skewed downwards by a three-day weekend (Friday was a public holiday on account of Eid).
It isn’t just at the national level. The number of daily new cases in Delhi on Sunday fell to 6,456, for a seven-day average of 10,043, the lowest in 33 days. Both at the national level, and in Delhi, the positivity rate (the proportion of those testing positive) has fallen sharply, with no appreciable fall in testing. Indeed, 14 of the country’s 20 major states have shown a decline in the positivity rate. Anecdotally, too, the number of distress calls on social media has fallen – and in most large cities, hospital beds are now available (although ICU ones are still a problem).
If (and it’s a pretty big if at least in the mind of this columnist) the trend lasts, India’s second wave would have seen a very sharp peak. That’s true of Delhi’s fourth wave too, which started ebbing on April 24.
It’s important to understand sharp peaks. They are usually unsustainable because they are usually the result of harsh non-pharmaceutical interventions such as a lockdown. In some cases, they can also be caused by faulty or disingenuous testing protocol (such as an indiscriminate use of unreliable rapid tests; poor testing spread; or the non-reporting or selective reporting of positive test results). In Delhi’s case, for instance, they are the result of a lockdown that went into place around a month ago, and which the government, on Sunday, extended till May 24.
The same vaccine effect seen in the UK and the US is evident in the 60-plus population in Mumbai and Chennai, but this isn’t evident across the country (yet). For it to start having an impact, India will have to vaccinate more people (and do so fast). Until then, India will have to make sure it puts in place an early warning system (built around science, with viral genome sequencing as a key component). And until then, when infections flare up in a certain area, the only option before administrations is a lockdown.