Experts stress on adaptation in face of extreme heatwaves
Whether the Marchapril extreme heatwave spell in India happened solely because of the climate crisis is now an obsolete question because most extreme heatwave events globally are to a large extent because of the climate crisis -and heatwaves of this scale almost certainly wouldn’t have happened in the pre-industrial world (1750 to 1850), top scientists argued in a recent essay.
In the face of the climate change-led extreme heatwaves, attribution science should focus on upper limits of adaptation and prepare communities for unknown climatic extremes of the future, the scientists specialising in attribution science, a field of research which helps understand if an extreme weather event happened due to the climate crisis, wrote in Springer journal on Monday.
“Citizens in many countries are now experiencing recordsmashing heatwaves that were intensified due to anthropogenic climate change. Whether today’s most impactful heatwaves could have occurred in a pre-industrial climate, traditionally a central focus of attribution research, is fast becoming an obsolete question. The next frontier for attribution science is to inform adaptation decision-making in the face of unprecedented future heat,” the essay in Springer journal by scientists from New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington; Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington; and Grantham Institute, Imperial College London said.
The heatwave spell over India began in March. It lasted from March 11 to 19, March 27 to April 12, April 17 to 19, and April 26 to 30. In April, several parts of northwest India recorded tembeen
peratures above 45°C. Around 14 stations in different parts of the country made temperature records in April. India, on average, recorded its warmest March days in 121 years with the maximum temperature across the country clocking in at 1.86°C above normal, an analysis by IMD had shown. Northwest and central India have experienced the hottest April this season in 122 years.
“Attribution studies have crucial in demonstrating that extreme weather events in several regions, particularly heatwaves, floods and cyclones are occurring due to climate change. Now, we are past the phase of asking if each of these extreme weather events is due to climate change and focus on mitigation and adaptation. The question has become obsolete and a frequent distraction from working towards climate change solutions. The frequency, intensity, duration, and area covered by these heatwaves are increasing and set to intensify further in the future, and there is sufficient data and research to establish that,” said Mathew Roxy Koll, climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology responding to the essay.
There is now increasing agreement among scientists that the March-april heatwave over the Indian subcontinent is also an amplification of climate change. “We’re still working on answering how large the role of climate change in the ongoing heatwave in South Asia is, but here is how the results will be useful beyond assessing current impacts...,” Friederike Otto, co-author of the essay, tweeted referring to the paper on Monday. “Heatwaves have been occurring in India in heatwaveprone pockets. It’s a matter of natural climate variability. But a 2004 attribution study managed to conclude that the 2003 heatwave in Europe that killed thousands of people is likely to have been caused by climate change. Attribution studies are very important so that there is more focus on adaptation and policy making... Unfortunately, in India such studies are not done. My feeling is that the recent heatwave spell in India is a result of climate change. I don’t have any data to back it but that’s my reading...,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.