2 CSDS Lokniti pre-poll survey suggests the AAP is primarily eating into Congress votes

A pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS Lokniti in October shows that the AAP is expected to get a vote share of 22% in Gujarat. If these numbers turn out to be true – pre-poll surveys are often off the mark – then AAP’S growth will primarily be at the cost of the Congress, which is expected to see a drop of around 20 percentage points from its 2017 vote share.

To be sure, the post-poll survey of the 2017 Gujarat elections by CSDS Lokniti showed that voter preferences changed significantly as polling came closer. According to an analysis based on Csds-lokniti’s surveys in The Hindu (published December 19, 2017),

43% voters decided their voting preference in the final two weeks of campaigning in 2017. The BJP was the primary beneficiary of this pivot, with Hindu voters’ preference for the BJP increasing by seven percentage points between November (when the pre-poll survey was conducted) and early December, which is when the polls were held.