Some good news on the agriculture front

After an unprecedented spring heatwave crimped production last year, India’s wheat yield in 2023 is likely to break a record and touch 112 million tonnes, this newspaper reported on Sunday, buoyed by good weather that pushed acreage under the staple crop to 34.1 million hectares, 12% higher than the five-year average. Officials from the agriculture ministry said that this was because cultivators had sown expensive, highyielding varieties in nearly all of Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh, taking a cue from sharply higher wheat prices this year. If the bumper crop actualises, it is likely to boost farm incomes, cool food inflation (though retail inflation has remained under upper limit of Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance limit over the past two months, core inflation remains sticky and cereal prices continue to defy the downward trajectory of overall food inflation), and replenish diminishing wheat stocks in warehouses (which some experts have linked to the government’s decision to end the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana and make food grains free under the National Food Security Act).

But a caveat is important. Officials stressed the importance of the weather continuing to remain “favourable and conducive” in the next two months, especially around the time of harvesting. Given the frequent weather shocks due to the climate crisis, this is anything but certain, and will need to be tracked. Moreover, as this newspaper has noted, there is a need to upgrade crop surveillance and invest in better, more sensitive forecasting systems. Some of this may already be in motion. A bumper crop is good news but the climate challenge to food security will need a more long-term response.