More heatwave days this summer, forecasts IMD
Most of India is in for a searing summer between April and June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, warning of “extreme heat” and more than double the number of heatwave days than is seen usually at this time of the year.
The prediction comes as the country prepares to hold the world’s largest elections with tens of thousands expected in political rallies that have already begun to build up and are expected to reach a crescendo in the peak summer weeks.
The seven-phase polls begin on April 19 and end on June 1.
“There is projection for extreme heat waves in the next three months. All the stakeholders including state governments have made elaborate preparations. Large number of lives have been lost in the past due to extreme heat waves. The level of our preparation has increased manifold. We came out with a national disaster management plan,” said Kiren Rijiju, the Union minister for earth sciences, during IMD’S seasonal temperature outlook briefing.
Around 10 to 20 days of heat waves are expected in various parts of the country against the usual of four to eight days seen in a usual year. The most heat wave prone areas are Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, north Karnataka followed by Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, IMD said in its outlook.
“People have to take part in electoral process and face extreme heat at the same time. We have to be extremely careful in the electoral process,” Rijiju added.
Hotter temperatures are likely to fan water shortages gripping several cities, including metropolitan cities of Bengaluru and Hyderabad, although no impact on the winter-sown wheat crop is likely as harvesting has
already begun, the weather department officials said.
Last year, around 30 people in a political function in Maharashtra died of high heat exposure. The incident took place when around a million people attended the Maharashtra Bhushan Award ceremony, which started at 11am and ended at 2pm (the hottest hours of the day). It was held in a 306-acre ground at Kharghar, on a day when the mercury touched 38°C with humid conditions that made for a high heat index.
Kamal Kishore, member secretary, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), said the agency has written to the Election Commission with an advisory for all states on how to prevent heat stress during elections.
The Union health ministry also said it has written to Election Commission specifically on possible exigencies during rallies or large political gatherings.
Wide spread
The hotter temperatures are likely to manifest in above-normal day and night temperatures throughout the three-month period in most parts of the country except in some pockets of east, northeast and northwest India, where the highs may be below-normal on average.
The scorching temperatures are likely to begin with the south peninsular, northwest central India, east India and plains of northwest India, where heatwave days are likely to be higher than usual beginning April itself.
Parts of Peninsular India are already recording extreme heat. The agency on Monday issued a special warning for districts of South Bengal for April 1 to April 5 period for heat wave and humid heat.
Maximum temperatures are in the range of 40-42°C at a few places over Rayalaseema and at isolated pockets over West Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Madhya Maharashtra. Minimum temperatures too are above normal by 3-5°C at many places over East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra; at a few places over Bihar; at isolated places over Odisha.
El Nino at play
Experts attributed the higher likelihood of heatwaves and the hotter summer in general to the El Nino phenomenon, which is marked by a warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which in turns leads to a cascading effect across the world.
But, encouragingly, latest forecasts indicate that strength of El Nino is likely to weaken from May-june — although it will still impact the summer. “We can expect extreme temperatures this summer mainly because of the impact of El Nino. Models are also indicating the development of La Nina conditions during the monsoon season, which may mean that we will have a good monsoon,” said M Mohapatra, IMD’S director general.
This year’s El Nino is one of the five strongest ever recorded. “El Nino occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically last nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It influences weather and storm patterns in different parts of the world. But it takes place in the context of a climate being changed by human activities,” WMO said earlier this month.
Other experts attributed the record-breaking heat globally last year to the climate crisis. “Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record — and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures, but heattrapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” WMO Secretary-general Celeste Saulo earlier said.
What’s at stake
Vulnerable people will be particularly at risk. “During heatwaves, elevated temperatures pose significant risks, especially for vulnerable populations like the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions, who are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke. Additionally, prolonged periods of extreme heat can lead to dehydration, and strain infrastructure such as power grids and transportation systems,” IMD warned.
To address these challenges, it added, “it is imperative for authorities to take proactive measures. This includes providing access to cooling centers, issuing heat advisories, and implementing strategies to alleviate urban heat island effects in affected areas. Such efforts are essential for safeguarding public health and minimizing the adverse impacts of heatwaves”.
PM TO RBI
day after the oath-taking [ceremony],” the PM said while addressing a function in Mumbai to commemorate 90 years of the RBI.
On March 16, the Election Commission (EC) announced dates for the Lok Sabha elections 2024, which start from April 19 and end on June 1 in seven phases. The counting of votes will be held on June 4. The current government’s term is ending on June 16.
Recalling the work on financial inclusion done by his government in the past 10 years, Modi said wider use of digital payments by street-hawkers is showing their financial footprint transparently.
He urged the regulator to use this information in empowering them financially.
According to government data, total digital transactions surged multifold from 2,071 crore in 2017-18 to 13,462 crore in 2022-23.
“Friends, we have to accomplish one more big task together in the next 10 years. We have to enhance Bharat’s economic selfreliance. We have to endeavour that our economy should be least effected by global adversities. Today, Bharat is becoming the engine of global growth with 15% in global GDP growth. In these circumstances, [we should] endeavour that our rupee is more accessible and acceptable globally,” he said.
The PM underscored the importance of healthy banking sector growth to provide the required funding to various projects. He also cautioned the sector and its regulator about emerging challenges such as artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchains that have changed the way banking is done. Stressing the importance of cybersecurity in the rapidly growing digital banking system driven by fintech, he urged experts to bring corresponding changes in the system.
The banking sector must be ready to meet the credit requirements of all — from global champions to street vendors, from cutting-edge sectors to traditional ones, he said. “This is critical for Viksit Bharat (developed India),” he said.
Asking the central bank to be future-ready, the PM said policies drafted today will shape the next decade for the RBI. Appreciating the central bank’s professionalism and its focus on trust and stability in transforming India’s banking sector in 10 years, Modi said now the system is being seen as strong and sustainable.
Gross non-performing assets (NPAS) of banks that were 11.25% in 2018 came down to below 3% by September 2023, he said. The problem of twin balance sheets is a problem of the past, he said, complimenting the regulator for taking right decisions.
When the Modi government came to power, it decided to make the banking system transparent; it stopped evergreening of bad loans and unearthed hidden NPAS through an asset quality review on April 2015.
This saw a sudden spike in gross NPAS to ₹10,36,187 crore by March 2018. Before the review, the gross NPA was ₹2,16,739 crore (on March 31, 2014) as most of the NPAS were hidden in the balance sheets of banks due to evergreening.
The government adopted a four ‘R” strategy — recognition, resolution, recapitalisation and reforms — to bring back banks into good health. While banks were recapitalised (with ₹3.5 lakh crore capital infusion) other reforms such as the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) alone resolved loans amounting to ₹3.25 lakh crore, the PM said. More than 27,000 applications involving underlying defaults of over ₹9 lakh crore were resolved even before admission under the IBC, he added.