Maintaining policy priorities in transition time
In fact, the foreign and security establishment has been tasked with building up various scenarios such as these and preparing briefs for the new government, assuming changes in key ministerial portfolios and even making contingency plans for a new Prime Minister
While the political leadership has remained preoccupied with the parliamentary elections over the past two months, it remains largely business as usual for the foreign office in South Block. Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale was in Dhaka for a vital meeting where he allayed fears about any negative implications of the Citizenship Bill on Bangladesh. He has also been meeting envoys of P-5 and strategically vital countries and held consultations with his visiting British counterpart, Simon McDonald to review bilateral cooperation and assured them of policy continuity on key relationships after government transition in New Delhi. One joint secretary overseeing a domain that is a strategic priority for Indian foreign policy in fact said his workload remains undiminished and his visits and bilateral foreign-office consultations are going on as usual.
Taking time out from campaigning, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, who is not contesting the polls, met her Iranian counterpart Javad Zarif who swung by Delhi on May 14. The talks centred around India’s decision to stop oil imports from Iran after Washington ended waivers for eight countries buying Iranian crude, including India. Despite Tehran’s obvious disappointment and the difficulties and higher crude prices New Delhi will have to pay for alternative sources of oil, India has decided to abide by Washington’s decision because US sanctions would further hit its already faltering economy. Tehran offered New Delhi very attractive terms, including discounts on crude and shipping and insurance charges. US sanctions, which set in from May 1, have hit Iran’s economy hard, but India can at least go ahead with the Chabahar port project, which Washington recognises as being of critical strategic importance, particularly for access to Afghanistan.
Saudi Arabia has offered to meet some of India’s oil shortfall, but New Delhi finds itself awkwardly placed, as one of the few countries with close ties to both Riyadh and Tehran, that are bitter rivals for dominance in the Persian Gulf region.
The relationship with Vietnam, where Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu just became the latest in the list of high level visitors after the President and Prime Minister, has become a critical priority for India in the light of its oil sourcing woes. The extension granted to ONGC Videsh (OVL) to explore for oil in the Vietnamese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea ends in June 2019 and, although OVL initially wanted to move its oil rig away from the area Vietnam disputes with China, New Delhi and Hanoi have decided to continue cooperation projects between Vietnam Oil and Gas Group PVN and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation in oil and gas exploration on land, the continental shelf and EEZ of Vietnam.
The India-Vietnam partnership is a crucial relationship New Delhi has been assiduously cultivating since the Act East policy gave impetus to the entire relationship with not just ASEAN countries, but Vietnam and Japan in particular, which could act as bulwarks in the face of an aggressive China. Vietnam is also where India hopes to boost its military and strategic equipment sales, including of the Bofors supersonic cruise missile.
Given China's aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea and India's intent to play a more significant role, of a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific region, the India-Vietnam strategic partnership is key to maintaining stability in the region where both countries share complementarities.
Another clear expression of Indian priorities was apparent when India sent Kiren Rijiju, MOS for Home Affairs as chief guest at the Israel Day celebrations on May 8, highlighting that country’s critical importance to India. However, the government sent no political representative for the Europe Day 28-nation European Union reception on May 9, instead sending the MEA’s Gitesh Sarma, Secretary (West).
In fact, the foreign and security establishment has been tasked with building up various scenarios such as these and preparing briefs for the new government, assuming changes in key ministerial portfolios and even making contingency plans for a new Prime Minister. However, privately, everyone is doing their electoral maths and drawing up various political scenarios, given the widespread belief that there may be no majority government, like between 2014 and 2019, and India may be headed, again, for a coalition era.