BJP may form a government, but will Modi be PM ?
The belief that the BJP may not be able to make it has seemingly persuaded Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao to relaunch his campaign for a non-BJP, nonCongress federal front to replace the BJP at the centre
There wouldn’t have been such a perception if Modi and BJP president Amit Shah had not only made grandiose claims about the BJP exceeding its present tally in parliament, but also ruling for the next 50 years. In fact, the programmes which Modi has been announcing to celebrate the 75th year of the country’s independence in 2022 take the BJP’s victory for granted
The beauty of Indian elections is that they are capable of springing surprises, foxing both politicians and voters who are taken aback by their own political audacity.
Just when the Congress thought that the party had everything going for it in the immediate post-1947 period because of its role in the independence movement, it suffered a jolt in 1957 when the unfancied communists won the assembly elections in Kerala to form the world’s first communist government in a democracy.
Ten years later, further jolts awaited the Grand Old Party (GOP) which still had stalwarts like Indira Gandhi when the Congress lost a series of assembly elections ranging from Gujarat to Madras (as Tamil Nadu was known then) via the Hindi heartland, West Bengal and Odisha. This drubbing was only a prelude to the Congress’s massive defeat in 1977 - post the Emergency rule of Indira Gandhi when it could not win a single of the 139 seats in U.P. and Bihar, which used to be its bastion.
What these results indicate is that the voters have a mind of their own and are aware that messiahs have feet of clay.
Yet, an understanding of the electorate’s political acumen is usually forgotten as the Congress did in its early phase and the Left did when it ruled in West Bengal for over three decades.
But, now, these former hegemons have lost nearly all their lustre. While the Congress is trying desperately to claw its way back into reckoning, the communists, who once saw themselves as the natural successors of the GOP, are at pains to retain their precarious toehold in Kerala.
The lesson from these political ups and downs is that pride goes before a fall. It is not yet certain whether the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aware of this bitter truth of the Indian scene since it is a new player in politics (the party was formed in 1980) and secured only 31 per cent of the votes during its best electoral showing in 2014.
It is noteworthy, therefore, that some of the recent surveys and the views of the party’s important members like Ram Madhav and Subramanian Swamy as well as allies like the Shiv Sena, provide a glimpse of the BJP’s vulnerability when they predict that the party may fall short of a majority in the Lok Sabha and will need allies from outside the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by it to form a government at the centre.
Such a situation raises the milliondollar question as to whether Narendra Modi can be the Prime Minister even if the BJP can cobble together an alliance of new and old partners.
For a start, the reduction of the party’s tally from the present 282 to 271, as Ram Madhav has said (others have put it at 220/230 or even below 200) will be regarded as a loss of face for Modi.
There wouldn’t have been such a perception if Modi and BJP president Amit Shah had not only made grandiose claims about the BJP exceeding its present tally in parliament, but also ruling for the next 50 years. In fact, the programmes which Modi has been announcing to celebrate the 75thyear of the country’s independence in 2022 take the BJP’s victory for granted.
It is a display of arrogance which may not have gone down well with the electorate. The BJP also exhibited the same haughtiness when it spoke of ushering in a Congress-mukt (free) India, a boast which it no longer repeats after its defeats by the Congress in the Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh assembly elections late last year.
Similarly, the BJP may have to climb down from its high horse if it cannot get a majority of its own since questions will be asked whether the Modi-Shah duo has overplayed their card. Even within the BJP, murmurs are likely to be heard about their role at a time when the BJP may have to induct several non-NDA parties to form a coalition government.
As is known, Modi is not the most amiable of personalities like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who presided over a 24-member coalition without much trouble and might have won a second term if the Gujarat riots of 2002 didn’t lead to parties like the
Trinamool Congress, the Lok Janshakti Party and the National Conference to walk out. Vajpayee subsequently held the riots responsible for his defeat in 2004 and the Congress’s unexpected success, once again showing how the voters set their own terms.
Since Modi may not be acceptable to some of the new allies – Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s name has been mentioned in this connection – speculation has been rife for quite some time about the BJP choosing some other leader to head the new coalition. Union Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari has topped the list in this regard, followed by Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh.
The belief that the BJP may not be able to make it has seemingly persuaded Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao to relaunch his campaign for a non-BJP, non-Congress federal front to replace the BJP at the centre.
He has already met Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, Karnataka Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and DMK leader M.K. Stalin to present his case. He is yet to contact West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee with whom he had first broached the idea of the front some months ago.
However, Rao’s problem is that Kumaraswamy and Stalin have already endorsed Rahul Gandhi’s name as a possible Prime Minister, which means that the Telangana leader may not be able to keep the Congress out of the proposed front.
This difficulty is only one of those which face the national opposition parties. Their other problem is that there are more than one prime ministerial contenders in their ranks.
Apart from Rahul Gandhi, there is Mayawati and also Mamata Banerjee. The adage ‘too many cooks spoil the broth’ applies to the opposition parties, much to the BJP’s relief.