Modi outlines new foreign policy imperatives

The oath-taking ceremony on May 30 has already seen a significant shift in foreign policy. In 2014, former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was invited and attended the event, along with other SAARC leaders and Mauritius. With relations with Pakistan at a new low, this time the list of invitees is different. Leaders of BIMSTEC, the President of Kyrgyzstan, as the current chairman of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the Prime Minister of Mauritius have been invited

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his first term, made profound changes to India’s foreign policy, positioning India for future great power status. He had to confront an increasingly militaristic China, evident in the Doklam standoff, and a perennially hostile Pakistan, which he took on through surgical strikes in Balakot, deep inside Pakistani territory. He made it clear that for the new India under his watch, it could not be ‘business as usual’.

Modi underscored the confidence of an aspirational society willing to reassert its civilisational soft power. This transition imbued Indian foreign policy with a certain amount of risk-taking, unlike the risk aversion of the past. From perpetually being a cautious power, India under Modi was ready to take on a larger global role by being more nimble in playing the great-power game. The ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’ policies are expected to continue, along with a careful balancing act with China. India will continue to stay away from the Belt and Road Initiative. Modi is expected to mend relations with Pakistan only if there is visible change in its current policy of exporting terrorism to India.

President Donald Trump was among the first to congratulate Modi. India will continue to nurture its all important strategic partnership with the US. Modi would need to balance India’s strategic priorities vis a vis Russian Federation on one hand and Iran on the other. He would need to assess relations with Britain in the face of the ongoing Brexit crisis. A summit with the European Union should be scheduled soon, since the last summit was held in 2017.

In line with his new foreign policy imperatives, Modi promoted the IndoPacific as a framework that aligns to his ‘Act East’ and ‘Neighbourhood First’ policies. His speech at Shangri-La Dialogue in 2018 described the Indo-Pacific as a “natural region” extending from the “shores of Africa to that of America,” even as he downplayed the idea of the “Indo-Pacific” as any sort of strategy or exclusive club. He underlined a “free, open and transparent Indo-Pacific grounded in respect for international maritime laws.”

The acknowledgement that American presence in the region was in India’s larger strategic interests marked a significant shift from old mantras. The Quad framework derives its geopolitical validation from India’s association and presents a unique opportunity for India to be an active participant in shaping regional security architecture with global undertones. Emphasis on the Indo-Pacific is expected to be strengthened.

The oath-taking ceremony on May 30 has already seen a significant shift in foreign policy. In 2014, former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was invited and attended the event, along with other SAARC leaders and Mauritius. With relations with Pakistan at a new low, this time the list of invitees is different. Leaders of BIMSTEC, the President of Kyrgyzstan, as the current chairman of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the Prime Minister of Mauritius have been invited. The list of invitees demonstrates India’s new foreign policy imperatives.

Although Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan called to congratulate Modi, he has not been invited. Playing down their humiliation, Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi told Dawn: “His (Prime Minister Modi’s) entire focus (during the election campaign) was on Pakistanbashing. It was unwise to expect that he can get rid of this narrative (soon).”

Harsh Pant, of the Observer Research Foundation, correctly underlines: “Modi has been a foreign policy prime minister in his first term. He led from the front in diplomatic engagements and managed to carve out personal equations with world leaders, which have paid dividends. He took risks in his foreign policy and, more often than not, succeeded in converting them into gains for India.”

In this term, Modi would be expected to manage the contradictions in the US-China relationship and its impact on India if a fullfledged trade war breaks out. India would need to prepare for a possible meltdown in Afghanistan, with the withdrawal of US troops. Modi would surely wish to include in the legacy he leaves to the nation the prospect of peace with Pakistan and a settlement of the boundary issue with Pakistan and China. The months ahead would determine his priorities in accordance with these challenges and the unfolding of his foreign policy legacy.