Why Modi won - despite odds
He turned the parliamentary election into a presidential one, making the balloting a referendum on himself and his governance, belittled and mocked the opposition leaders and sometimes their ancestry – by name - and asked the electorate if they wanted his
There are two sets of people who grossly misread the political tea leaves brewing before this momentous 2019 election one, the opposition and two, the media, or at least large sections of it.
Fighting anti-incumbency, deep political and social polarisation and a patchy governance record, the widely anticipated result was a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but with a much reduced mandate than in 2014, with the possibility of a minority government led by him with regional party support. But Modi, and his trusted lieutenant, BJP president Amit Shah, proved the sceptics horribly wrong and returned with a more decisive mandate than the previous one to become the first Indian prime minister in half a century to head two successive majority governments. What were the elements that went into this resounding mandate that has the potential to change the course of Indian politics, economy and society for the next decade?
First was messaging. The ruling BJP had simple, catchy slogans for the election “Phir ek Baar, Modi Sarkar” (Modi government, yet once more) and “Namumkin ab mumkin hai” (the impossible is possible now). If there was a single factor that brought Modi and his BJP back to power again this time, it is in the power of their narrative and the conviction in their messaging.
The BJP message to India’s 900 million voters - of whom 67% voted - was return us to power and we will take India to unprecedented heights, making the impossible possible. This resonated well among voters, particularly the young,
across a diverse and multilingual nation. In contrast, the principal opposition party, the Congress, had only a negative messaging that was associated with it - “Chowkidar chor hai” (the watchman - read Modi - is a thief). The people didn’t think so and, to repudiate the Congress line, voted Modi and his alliance back to power with a thumping majority.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi, who this time even pulled his housewife sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into the campaign to make the party’s visible campaign largely a family affair, a move which failed miserably. Gandhi seemed to be once again out of touch with the electorate, failed to provide an alternative vision and an inclusive ideology to the nation as opposed to the BJP’s majoritarian outlook, and the party’s agenda of economic promises, like a minimum income guarantee to the poor, failed to connect with the targeted
voter. Simply, put the people saw no alternative to Modi and the BJP in the Congress or any of the regional chieftains who nursed national ambitions.
Gandhi proved to be no match for the charisma, oratory, communication skills and, above all, the credibility that Modi had with the people of India. This despite the fact that the economy was on a slowdown, the job market was shrinking, there was countrywide agricultural distress, growing resentment among the middle class and intelligentsia against intolerance and Hindu chauvinism and even his one-time supporters spoke dismayingly of Modi’s “arrogance”. Despite all these negatives, Modi triumphed beating all odds against him.
He turned the parliamentary election into a presidential one, making the balloting a referendum on himself and his governance, belittled and mocked the opposition leaders - and sometimes their ancestry – by name - and asked the electorate if they wanted his “good governance” or a hotchpotch of motley leaders, who were at odds with themselves, and would probably have a rotational prime ministerial system on a day-to-day basis if they ever came to power. Do you want that, Modi would ask at his rallies. And the answer would be a resounding “No!”.
The national opposition, put on the defensive by Modi, ran a largely negative campaign on a ‘remove Modi’ platform, but couldn’t tell the country’s very aware voter - including about 15 million firsttime aspirational voters - what they would do for them and how they were going to assuage their concerns or meet their expectations.
A second major plank on which the BJP won was muscular nationalism and
the perceived threat from Islamist terror, successfully building a narrative that Modi’s strong and decisive leadership of the country was imperative to counter
that challenge to national security and territorial integrity, be it from Pakistan in the west, China in the east, the maritime challenge around its frontiers or the anarchist “anti-national” within.
The Balakot air strikes, with Indian Air Force aircraft going inside Pakistani territory to avenge the killing of Indian paramilitary troopers in Pulwama, struck an emotive chord countrywide and left the opposition without any matching narrative.
Modi and Shah - an acolyte described the duo on TV as “two bodies and
one soul” - also stitched up tactical alliances in time with parties in the NDA that had turned hugely critical of them because they knew that in states like Maharashtra and Bihar - two big and consequential states where they would find the going tough alone - while the Congress disdained of alliances and deluded itself and its supporters it was on the way to a big comeback. In most major states, the Congress, including in the largest Uttar Pradesh, their hitherto family bastion, the party suffered humiliating defeats.
Another major contributor to the victory, according to one of the key Modi government ministers, Hardeep Singh Puri, was in effective last-mile delivery of schemes that made a difference to the lives of the poorest - building of rural toilets, provision of cooking cylinders, putting money in poorest bank accounts, mass housing for the homeless and electricity to homes that had not seen the light. He said such schemes across the country had 220 million beneficiaries and “they all voted for the BJP”.
In the end, four things won the day for Modi - his deft messaging, strong leadership narrative, political astuteness and delivering on promises where they mattered. In a country with huge disparities as India, Modi knew that middle-class loyalties can be fickle but the poor - if material changes can be made in their lives - will return the favour in ample measure.
That’s why in his acceptance speech he spoke about getting rid of the “20th century mindset” as now on only two castes would remain in India - “those who are poor and those who will work to eradicate poverty”.
And the poorest across the country who voted for him ardently believe Modi is going to be the changemaker in their lives.