Monsoon raga: Reducing rain dependence a long way off for Indian agriculture

If the rain gods are parsimonious - as is likely according to a private forecaster Skymet - the spectre of drought and distress will haunt the countryside as in 2009, 2014, 2015 and 2017. Drought conditions currently prevail in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka. There is already a serious agrarian crisis in the country

The Indian economy is services driven but the fortunes of its agricultural sector depend on its tryst with the southwest monsoon. The share of agriculture in the nation’s GDP has declined to 14%, but half the country’s workforce still lives off the land. Over half the country’s net cultivable area of 141.4 million hectares is un-irrigated and rain-dependent. It is this segment whose gaze turns skyward for deliverance as dark clouds, flashing bolts of lightning and rumbling thunder, cross Kerala every June; sweep over the peninsula and shower the rest of India with rainfall till September.

The southwest monsoon is expected to be “near-normal” this year, according to the India Meteorological Department, meaning that total rainfall is expected to be 96% of the long period average of 887.5 mms over the season. Near-normal rainfall is a good augury for higher grains production during the kharif or summer season when crops are sown in June and July. Higher rural incomes, in turn, boost consumer demand for fast moving consumer goods, two-wheelers, tractors etc and raise overall industrial growth. Good rains thus reinforce the growth momentum of the economy.

But if the rain gods are parsimonious - as is likely according to a private forecaster Skymet - the spectre of drought and distress will haunt the countryside as in 2009, 2014, 2015 and 2017. Drought conditions currently prevail in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka. There is already a serious agrarian crisis in the country. Farmer suicides are on the rise in even prosperous states like Punjab and Maharashtra due to indebtedness arising from crop losses. A bad monsoon spells distress for small farmers and labourers in vast parts of peninsular India who subsist on rain-fed agriculture.

This dismal scenario may come to pass as the southwest monsoon has indeed been wayward in recent years. Six of the last 10 years have seen below normal (2012, 2017 and 2018) and deficient rainfall (2009, 2014 and 2015). Deficient rains are when total rainfall is less than 90 per cent of the long period average. There is also a growing frequency of extreme events like heavier rainfall on a lesser number of rainy days that have inundated cities like Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Srinagar not so long ago. An extreme weather event in New Delhi is a disaster waiting to happen. he impact of weather-induced fluctuations is, of course, more direct on the country’s agricultural growth that averaged a sluggish 1.7 per cent per annum during the six years mentioned above. A truant monsoon makes matters worse for the Indian economy at time when it is already slowing down. The crucial link is on the demand side as depressed rural incomes adversely impact the off-take of fast moving consumer goods like shampoo, toothpaste and biscuits. Sales are also sluggish for cars, two-wheelers and tractors. Declining private consumption in fact is dragging down India’s growth. If the rains are poor, inflation is also likely to spike upwards. Food prices reflect demand-supply mismatches. With a deficient monsoon, there will be a shortage of food production and prices spiral upward. With good rains, farmers reap record harvests that depress prices. The bad news in this regard is that coarse cereal prices are already firming up, thanks to drought conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Milk prices have also recently risen due to drought-induced fodder and feed shortages that have raised prices of de-oiled rice bran, molasses and maize. Much higher food inflation thus is in prospect.

Preparing for the possibility of poor rains, the union agriculture ministry has identified water-stressed regions like Bundelkhand in Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha and Marathwada in Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka, Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh for focused policy intervention. The various contingency measures include setting up seed hubs with a focus on drought-resistant and short-duration crops.

The big challenge for government policy is to build more irrigation facilities to reduce monsoon dependence. There is a long way to go as only 45% of India’s agriculture is irrigated, up from less than 20% in the 1960s. Until this is stepped up manifold, especially in the peninsular India, the services-driven economy will keep beating to the rhythm of the falling rains every year.