South Block Watch

Testing times for Indian diplomacy; visits make amends

While fault lines with Pakistan have ruptured with the government’s decision to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, ending Kashmir’s special status, and bifurcate Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories, all is not well in other parts of the neighbourhood too, with some distress signals even from close friends Bangladesh and Bhutan.

For the first time, no sweets were exchanged between Indian and Pakistani troops at border posts on Eid. The complete breakdown of relations between the two neighbours is a culmination of the ‘zerosum’ policy adopted by India over the past few years; ‘stop terrorism or no talks’. The sudden change in Kashmir’s status has seen Islamabad react by carrying that ‘zero-sum’ policy (for Pakistan, ‘Kashmir or nothing’) to its end, completely cutting off ties for now.

Bangladesh, with which India’s relations have become very warm, expressed “disquiet” over New Delhi’s policy to expel illegal immigrants and implement the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam. When Home Minister Amit Shah raised the issue of illegal migrants, (essentially saying Bangladesh should take them back) during the seventh IndiaBangladesh home ministerial talks with his counterpart Asaduzzaman Khan, the Bangladesh delegation maintained there had been no migration from Bangladesh since 1971. The impasse remains and will again be raised when Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar makes his maiden ministerial visit to Dhaka on August 20-21. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is scheduled to visit India in October and will aim to resolve the issue of illegal migrants amicably.

Meanwhile, Bhutan, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting August 17-18, is not happy about the tariff India pays for the power purchase agreements. Modi will inaugurate the Mangdechhu hydroelectric power project during his visit and will hear from the Bhutanese that they seek a higher rate for the electricity they supply. The issue has been an emotive one in Bhutan and has seen some popular dissatisfaction with India’s attitude.

India, after initially being left out, has been kept in the loop on the latest situation after the eighth round of peace talks between the US and Taliban at Doha, with Zalmay Khalilzad, the US envoy for Afghan peace, visiting Delhi and meeting Jaishankar. Emulating his predecessor Sushma Swaraj, whose sudden death left South Block stunned, Jaishankar used a Twitter post to talk of his meeting with Khalilzad, saying he had “useful discussions” with Khalilzad who “Provided a comprehensive update on the situation in Afghanistan. Shared views on how we could work together effectively.” New Delhi’s concerns about talking only with the Taliban and not the Kabul government have been heard. Whether they will be taken on board is unclear.

Jaishankar recently visited Bangkok for the EAS, ASEAN Regional Forum and Mekong Ganga Cooperation ministerial meetings, but the highlight was a fillip to India’s Act East Policy, with India formally becoming a development partner of the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) Initiative as a Development Partner. The sub-regional group comprises Myanmar, Lao, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam, will provide further impetus to connectivity, trade and people-to-people ties with Southeast Asia.

In Bangkok, Jaishankar also met US counterpart Michael Pompeo to finalise details of Modi’s US visit in September, when he will address the UN General Assembly and, on September 22, address ‘Howdy, Modi,’ a meeting with the Indian diaspora, in Houston, Texas.

Modi is travelling to Biarritz in France for the G-7 Summit (of the world’s most industrialised nations) meeting from August 24 to 26, and take this first opportunity to brief leaders of the seven countries (USA, Canada, France, Britain, Germany, Italy and Japan) and China about the situation in Kashmir and the steps his government has taken. Both China and India have been invited by French President Emmanuel Macron for the G-7 outreach.

Bangladesh, with which India’s relations have become very warm, expressed “disquiet” over New Delhi’s policy to expel illegal immigrants and implement the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam