J&K fire-fighting consumes official agenda

The fallout of the Kashmir announcements and increasingly apparent economic slowdown has had the government fire-fighting on all fronts, particularly the diplomatic, through August, trying to cover all bases to stem any major negative reactions. South Block was prepared for the noise from Pakistan, and even China, when the government announced it would abrogate Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which had conferred a ‘special status’ on J&K. What it did not expect was Britain’s reaction, barbed comments from political leaders and looking away while the High Commission was attacked; and backhanded comments from Russia, and US President Donald Trump’s comments about mediation.

A flurry of visits have been undertaken to staunch the negativity before Prime Minister Narendra Modi can address the UN General Assembly on September 27 and inform the global community about the situation within the Indian state and what the Indian government has done to ensure that people’s lives improve.

Official sources said Modi at the UNGA would graphically contrast that with the situation in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and even in the Northern Areas of GilgitBaltistan, where rapid demographic changes have been occurring to suppress the local population. It is possible he would focus on the situation in Balochistan, the sources said, time-permitting, and highlight the situation in that restive province, created by Pakistan and now, also China.

Modi went to Paris on August 22 for a bilateral meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron to seek support from India’s oldest strategic partner and the one permanent member of the UN Security Council that has publicly unconditionally supported India. Briefing the media in Chantilly after one-on-one talks with Modi lasting over 90 minutes, Macron said France would support any policy that would give the region “stability” and said no one should “provoke violence” there.

“France believes the issue of Kashmir should be resolved between India and Pakistan and no other party should be involved,” Macron said. “We would like to support any policy that keeps the situation stable and free from terror.”

Once assured of that support (and a veto at the UN, if any moves should again come up to raise the Kashmir issue at the UNSC), Modi travelled to two Islamic nations, the UAE and Bahrain, to re-assert India’s “traditional, warm” indeed, fraternal ties with them, to reassure Muslims within India, and particularly J&K, that his government’s moves in Kashmir were purely to end hurdles to the state’s development. The signalling was obvious, to show that Islamic nations, even those leaders within the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC), were with India. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Bangladesh and his emphasis that this was the “shonali adhyay” (golden chapter) in bilateral ties also conveyed subtle signals that Islam was not the issue in J&K.

Economic heft attached to the Gulf visits was also clear to see and positively impacted market sentiment within India. Modi’s quick return to France, as a special invitee to the G-7 Summit (the first time after 14 years, when then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was invited in 2005 to the then G-8 summit in Scotland) and his meetings with Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the sidelines, have stalled any further ‘Trumpspeak’ on mediation or British sermons on human rights.

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited to Moscow to discuss the situation in J&K and “remind” his Russian counterpart Nikolai Patrushev of India’s staunch support during Russia’s annexation of Crimea from the Ukraine in 2014. When Modi visits Vladivostok on September 4 as the guest of honour at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), he will announce substantial plans to invest in Russia’s Far East, by way of payback to the city from where a flotilla of Russia’s Pacific Fleet had sailed in 1971, to counter the US Seventh Fleet, in support of India during the Bangladesh liberation war. He will also, during the annual summit with President Vladimir Putin, outline his concept of the ‘Indo-Pacific region’ as a collaborative and not a competitive visions. Moscow has been wary of New Delhi falling into the US sphere of influence.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Delhi on September 8 will provide Modi another opportunity to outline his vision for J&K during this foreign policy-packed period.

The signalling was obvious, to show that Islamic nations, even those leaders within the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC), were with India. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Bangladesh and his emphasis that this was the “shonali adhyay” (golden chapter) in bilateral ties also conveyed subtle signals that Islam was not the issue in J&K