Modi Faces Political Drought
The rain gods have deserted Modi. His rivals are ready to exploit the discontent.
The rain gods have deserted Modi. His rivals are ready to exploit the discontent.
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s toughest challenge in a tough election year could be from the rain gods. That much was made clear on July 17, as police and security personnel patrolled a 130km stretch of the Sardar Sarovar dam’s branch canal from Dhanki in Surendranagar to Malia in Rajkot district, to prevent farmers from stealing water. Though the Narmada water is essentially meant for irrigation, the state government has been forced to reserve it as drinking water for Kutch in north Gujarat and Saurashtra, where Modi is expected to face tough opposition in the Assembly polls, expected to be held around end- 2012.
It may be too late, though. As Gujarat Water Resources Minister Nitin Patel said, “More than a quarter of the monsoon season is gone, and the state has only received 150 mm of rainfall. We should have had 800 mm by now. If the monsoon does not set in soon, crop yield will be affected, but we are geared to tackle any crisis, including that of drinking water.”
Only around 270 villages in the state need to be supplied drinking water by tankers these days. In the 1990s, when the Narmada canal and check dams were not yet in place, the
WITH AQUARTER OF THE MONSOON SEASON GONE, THE STATE HAS RECEIVED ONLY150 MM OF RAINFALL, AGAINST THE USUAL800 MM.
number of tanker- dependent villages used to be in the thousands. The state has 210 medium and small dams, which, this year, are only 33 per cent full, below the expected 50 per cent. The crop situation could be grim if monsoon doesn’t set in soon. Seventy per cent of the sowing is over, and if rains plays truant till the first week of August, 30 per cent of the crop will wither away. Paddy transplantation is on hold in large tracts, as there isn’t enough water for the flooding re-
quired for the crop.
The Sardar Sarovar dam on the Narmada river could be Gujarat’s saviour, as the dam, despite holding 35 per cent less water in store than last year, will help the state tackle a potential drinking water crisis. The problem is more acute on the irrigation front, with catchment areas of the state’s big dams— from Sardar Sarovar to Kadana on the Mahi and Ukai on the Tapi, located in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan respectively— having received little rainfall. There has been some improvement in the past week, though.
If the monsoon fails, it could lead to an urban- rural conflict on election eve. There are murmurs of discontent from some farmers in Saurashtra, who have been denied water from the Narmada for irrigation. This is ammunition for the opposition Congress, as well as Modi’s arch rival, former chief minister Keshubhai Patel, who are already accusing his government of being antifarmer and pro- corporate.
Most of Modi’s key ministers— Vajubhai Vala, Anandiben Patel, Nitin Patel and Saurabh Patel— come from urban areas. The government will have to balance distributing the scarce resource between urban and rural areas, without upsetting the satraps.
Keshubhai, along with former chief minister Suresh Mehta and former Union minister Kashiram Rana, is holding rallies under the banner of ‘ Parivartan’ ( change) in the state. On July 22, he called Modi “as thickskinned as a rhinoceros in dealing with people’s problems”. Dubbing him as a “decayed fruit” who should be thrown out, at a rally in Rajkot, he accused the Chief Minister of making false claims on development, and of being “a liar”. Modi and his supporters have maintained a dignified silence so far, but the trio is not missing any opportunity to attack the Chief Minister, and a drought will provide an all- access pass. But as Nitin Patel puts it: “We’re hopeful there won’t be a drought. If there is one, let’s not forget that effective tackling of drought will fetch us public appreciation. We are prepared to face any situation.”