BATTLE OF DIMINISHING RETURNS

In 2009, gains in the key battlegrounds of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh as well as in a dozen smaller states swept Congress back into power. Can the party safeguard those gains?

2009 Actual 2014 Projected

1 In Delhi, Bangalore and Mumbai, Congress will have to break out of AAP’s shadow. It must put up credible, clean faces and ensure they are not consumed by factionalism.

2 In Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, where Congress is in a direct fight with BJP, its only hope lies in fielding strong candidates.

3 In Maharashtra, Congress must deploy Raj Thackeray, like it did in 2009, to split BJP-Shiv Sena votes. It must also contain an overambitious NCP.

4 In Kerala, Congress would actually want BJP to do well because BJP will divide Left Front’s Hindu votes.

8 In Uttar Pradesh, Congress can hurt BJP through tactical fielding of candidates with BSP: If BJP has a Brahmin against its OBC candidate, the party can get Mayawati to field a Brahmin to split the vote.

7 In Odisha, BJP can cut into BJD votes and help Congress. But if it does too well, Congress could be routed, not unlike in Delhi where propping up Aam Aadmi Party backfired.

6 In multi-cornered contests, Congress’s fate will be decided by how it manipulates alliances. In Andhra Pradesh, it needs to strike a deal with YSR Congress or TRS to get a shot at a decent tally.

5 In Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Assam, Congress stands little chance unless it patches up with JD(S), DMDK, Trinamool Congress, AIUDF. Congress has little more to offer prospective allies than a catchphrase: ‘Stop Modi’. But even it finds partners, it can, at best, hope for a scenario where BJP is short of a clear majority and the grand old party—with 100-odd seats, insufficient to make it a viable alternative—is the “biggest party in the third front”.