FOR WHOM THE BELLS WILL TOLL
When assembly election results in five states—Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala—are announced on May 19, the national political discourse may not witness a dramatic shift, unlike after the post-Bihar assembly poll results. These elections are unlikely to alter the ruling NDA’s position in the Rajya Sabha—often blamed for the Narendra Modi government’s failure to push through the reforms agenda, thanks to the majority Opposition parties enjoy.
But the results of May 19 will certainly determine the strategic course of three major political parties in India— the Congress, the BJP and the Left. Two of the five states going to polls are ruled by the Congress, while in the other two, the two national parties—the Congress and BJP—are, at best, marginal players. The Left is seeking a return to power in West Bengal by joining hands with the Congress while in Kerala it’s trying to overthrow a Congress-led government. The BJP is the only party which has little to lose in these elections but may return with surprise victories—political and symbolic.
If the 2017 assembly elections scheduled in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh are taken into account, Assam—with 14 Lok Sabha seats and 7 Rajya Sabha seats—is the only state where the BJP is within striking distance of grabbing power. It is also the only state where the two national parties are in direct contest. After the humiliating defeat in Delhi and Bihar last year, a victory in a political landscape where the lotus is yet to bloom will be a shot in the arm for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah.
For the Congress, which is facing an
Nanti-incumbency wave both in Assam and Kerala, retaining power in at least one of the states will be very crucial. If these two states also slip out of its control, the grand old party will be left with only six states, three of which are in the Northeast and the largest being Karnataka. And barring Punjab, where they will face a stiff challenge from the Aam Aadmi Party in 2017, the road to revival could be a never-ending one.
In Tamil Nadu, the Congress and the DMK have revived their old friendship to counter Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa’s freebie politics. If they manage to overthrow the AIADMK government, it will be a validation of Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s strategy of creating a favourable political environment in states where the party has been reduced to irrelevance. Bihar is seen as the first success story of this formula. As four states go to polls in April-May, the Congress and the Left fight a battle for survival, and the BJP explores new horizons. But few challengers for the two incumbent women CMs.
For the CPI(M), the battle for West Bengal is still an uphill task despite its seat-sharing understanding with the Congress. In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front, led by the CPI(M), sniffs a genuine opportunity to oust the Congress-led UDF government, crippled by a series of scandals. Victory in these two states, or at least in Kerala, will not only extend the geographical boundary of the red bastion, currently restricted to Tripura, but will also be a big boost for Sitaram Yechury, who faces his first electoral battle after taking charge as party general secretary.
ASSAM Alliance in the Air Immediately after the Bihar assembly poll results were announced, when a grand alliance of the JD(U), RJD and Congress trounced the BJP-led NDA, Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi broached the idea of a grand understanding among all political parties, including the Congress, AIUDF and AGP to counter the rise of the BJP which had emerged as the most successful party in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the 2015 civic polls. Gogoi’s idea was hijacked, ironically by the BJP, which stitched up a coalition by bringing AGP, BPF and several tribal groups under one umbrella, the mastermind behind this rainbow coalition being none other than Himanta Biswa Sarma, Gogoi’s former trusted aide who joined the BJP last August following a three-year-long power struggle with the chief minister.
However, it’s not going to be a smooth ride for the BJP in a state with 35 per cent Muslim population, the second highest in the country. The party also faces internal dissent over its alliance with the AGP, which resulted in 24 seats for the regional party, and candidate selection. Many leaders who have been in the party for decades are