The Rupani Manoeuvre
The new Gujarat CM will need all his vaunted negotiation skills to heal a divided state
Newly-appointed Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani has his task cut out for him—to heal a divided state with his much-vaunted negotiation skills
Till around 5 pm on August 6, when Vijay Rupani was declared the 16th chief minister of Gujarat, all indications were that the chosen one was Nitin Patel. Even Rupani, who had celebrated his 60th birthday just four days previously, appeared convinced that Patel would be the party’s choice. Indeed, when the latter arrived at Kamalam, the BJP state headquarters, he was received by workers as the CM-designate. So certain did Patel’s elevation seem, local television channels were already interviewing his wife for her reaction.
Patel was outgoing CM Anandiben Patel’s choice to be her successor. But it took Prime Minister Narendra Modi till the last minute to make up his mind. He told Amit Shah, the party president, that Rupani was the man for the job. Shah is widely acknowledged to have been in Rupani’s corner, for he admires the soft-spoken but efficient manner in which the minister for transport and labour in Anandiben’s government gets things done.
It seems there were some tough political calculations behind Modi and Shah’s surprise choice. Though a Patel, Anandiben had proved unable to contain the community’s agitation for reservations. She had also failed to consolidate the non-Patel voters, most of whom were repelled by the violence of their methods. What went in favour of Rupani (also the current Gujarat BJP president), is that he’s a skilled
negotiator, with an impressive track of winning elections for the party. More importantly, he has no political baggage weighing him down; there’s no animosity against him, either among the Patels or the OBCs. It’s part of Rupani’s appeal for both Modi and Shah, especially in the run-up to the crucial assembly elections next year. This has arguably been the most testing period for the state BJP in the past 25 years, marked by the disenchantment of the Patels and the Dalits, who together comprise about 23 per cent of the population of Gujarat.
Two examples help demonstrate why so much faith has been placed in Rupani’s understanding of electoral and party matters. During the 2007 assembly polls, Rupani was in charge of both Saurashtra and Kutch. The media speculation was that the Patels of Saurashtra had turned against Modi and that the BJP was set to lose one of its assured bastions. On the eve of the polls, Rupani told a journalist that the BJP would win 42 of the 57 seats. In the event, the party won 43.
Five years later, when former Gujarat CM Keshubhai Patel resigned from the BJP and launched his own Gujarat Parivartan Party, Rupani urged Modi to take no notice of the hype, assuring him that the BJP would win at least 35 seats from the region. The party did exactly that.
Rupani, a long-time party loyalist, has had a relatively meteoric rise in electoral politics. He won his first elections as recently as 2014, nominated by the BJP to contest the Rajkot West seat vacated by Vajubhai Vala, who had been appointed Karnataka governor. In November the same year, he was appointed to the cabinet. And by the following February, he was the RUPANI TICKS ALL THE RIGHT BOXES, OR AT LEAST ENOUGH TO TIDE OVER ANY OBJECTIONS TO HIS LACK OF ADMINISTRATIVE EXPERIENCE BJP state president.
Rupani might have become an MLA in 2014 but otherwise he is among the seniormost leaders of the Gujarat BJP. He was a student ABVP activist, going to jail as a 19-year-old for protesting against the Emergency. He was an RSS worker and has been associated with the BJP since its inception. Rupani has served on various committees in Gujarat, been the general secretary of the BJP’s state unit on a number of occasions, and is also an ex-chairman of the Gujarat Tourism Board. He was a Rajya Sabha MP from 2006 to 2012.
Rupani is also Gujarat’s first Jain chief minister. The community forms but one per cent of the state’s population, so the decision to pick him is also being interpreted by many as a nod to the Centre’s decision in January 2014 to recognise Jainism as a minority religion and confer upon Jains a legally distinct status. Rupani ticks all the right boxes, or at least enough of them to smooth over any objections over his lack of administrative experience (that said, good governance is Modi’s key mantra, and many sceptics feel it will weigh on the new CM).