FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
In May 2014, when Narendra Modi was elected prime minister with a clear majority, the nation cheered. People waited with bated breath for ‘achhe din’ to arrive. In our Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey in August that year, the government’s numbers soared. The findings suggested that the BJP would increase its tally from 282 to 314 if the Lok Sabha elections were held again, and the ruling NDA would rise from 336 to a staggering 354 seats. The big concerns at the time were price rise, corruption, getting the economy back on track to boost jobs, and there was hope that Modi would finally pull India out of the quagmire.
Over the next 18 months, as some problems remained, our biannual MOTN surveys suggested that the government’s numbers were on a downward trend. But at the halfway mark of his five-year term, Modi is bouncing back strongly by showing a resolve for governance. For a country that was longing for big-ticket reforms, the GST Bill ushers in a major economic shift by restructuring the tax code. Despite all the criticism of his overseas trips, his foreign policy initiative gets a big thumbs up in the survey. In his Independence Day speech, Modi stressed on ‘surajya’ (good governance) as the next step after ‘swaraj’ (self-governance), and since he has a penchant for pithy slogans, he coined a new motto for his government: Reform, Perform and Transform. Twenty-four per cent of the respondents still think he is all talk and no action—something for the prime minister to ponder about. Nevertheless, if elections were held today, the survey says, the BJP would win 259 seats, less than the 282 it got in the 2014 polls, but significantly higher than the 234 seats projected six months ago. The NDA would claw back to a comfortable 304 seats from 286 in February, while the UPA would slump from 110 to 94.
Yet there are still major problems for the government in key areas. Though it has been able to stem corruption at the top, 35 per cent of the respondents feel corruption has increased under the NDA. I believe this is because the government has not downsized the bloated bureaucracy, with which the public interacts. Price rise has been controlled to some extent, but the common man is still reeling from food inflation—a whopping 67 per cent feel the prices of essential commodities have risen under Modi. However, his biggest problem is the creation of jobs, where 61 per cent now believe the situation has become worse in the past two years as compared with 47 per cent who believed so in our February survey. This is in spite of major programmes such as Make in India, Skill India, Start-Up India and Digital India. Though the government is spending on infrastructure at a furious rate, private investment remains sluggish and public sector banks are swamped with NPAs.
But there is a paradox. In spite of all these problems, Modi’s personal popularity continues to rise. This could mean that the TINA (There is no alternative) factor is back in play. The survey shows it’s a one-horse race: 50 per cent consider Modi best suited to be prime minister, with Congress vicepresident Rahul Gandhi trailing far behind at 13 per cent.
Our cover package makes sense of the survey and reveals some interesting social trends. A surprisingly large number of respondents have very conservative attitudes towards issues such as the beef ban and censorship. A majority believe the government should have control over what people eat or drink, and 47 per cent support censorship in films. Perhaps that’s why the government pays little heed to protests on these issues.
No government can fulfil the expectations of all its people. The problems in India are gigantic, and our convoluted politics, interspersed with frequent state elections, adds to the difficulty. Midway through his tenure, Modi has made headway on many fronts, but there is a lot for him to still achieve. I think the nation believes he is moving in the right direction and that he is the man for the job. That is why India still has faith in him. He must not betray that.