GAME PLAN BJP
The saffron party is counting on Modi’s charisma and a split in the Dalit and Muslim vote to counter the BSP and the SP-Congress alliance in UP
THE crowd is enthusiastic and hangs on to every word he says. “When you press the button on election day, it will not be to defeat someone or make someone win. You will press the button to change the destiny of Uttar Pradesh after 15 years of corruption and bhai-bhatijavaad (nepotism),” Bharatiya Janata Party national president Amit Shah says to a packed election gathering at Rudauli near Faizabad town on February 18. Repeated endlessly through this campaign, it’s a familiar spiel centred around Prime Minister Narendra Modi—“a leader committed to governance” pitted against “a coalition of two corrupt clans”. The crowd cheers Shah. It’s clearly a friendly cohort.
Through his 20-minute address, the BJP president doesn’t ask for votes. He demands “a two-third majority in Uttar Pradesh”. And, out in Faizabad, he even introduces small doses of Hindutva, albeit couched in issues of law and order and development. Shah speaks of reviving the local dairy industry. And to do this, he promises that a BJP government will “shut down all mechanised slaughterhouses within 12 hours of coming to power”.
From distributing tickets to campaigning on the ground, leaders privately acknowledge that the party has employed a three-pronged strategy—religious polarisation in western UP; working caste equations in Purvanchal; and emphasising the contrast in development (with neighbouring Madhya Pradesh) in Bundelkhand.
The BJP hopes to gain significant electoral advantage from the open wooing of Muslim voters by the ruling Samajwadi Party as well as the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party.
By carefully calibrating its campaign to project either the SP or the BSP as the main rival in specific areas, the saffron leadership hopes to create circumstances where UP’s 19 per cent Muslim votes get split between its rivals. Party insiders say it was part of a strategic course correction to begin projecting BSP as ‘the main rival’ after the Akhilesh Yadav-Rahul Gandhi alliance. “It’s now in our interest that the BSP gains some strength as it will weaken the SP-Congress,” says a saffron strategist. Projections seem to suggest that the strategy may be succeeding in seats where Muslims matter.
Shah and other BJP leaders are also working hard to drive home the SP’s traditional caste bias. “When you go to a police station with a complaint, they first want to know your caste,” the BJP chief tells voters, alluding to the predominance of Yadavs and Muslims in the police force.
It has been a sore point for other castes in the state, where 70 per cent of the constabulary recruited recently under the SP were Yadavs, and a significant number belonged to villages near the Mulayam Singh clan’s home district of Etawah and neighbouring Yadav-dominated districts. Sources in the party also point out that over half the 76 deputy collectors appointed recently belong to the caste.
Shah holds up ‘Gujarat under the BJP’ as a ‘shining example’ of governance without caste or communal bias. UP, he promises voters, will be similarly transformed.
The BJP’s central leadership is confident of taking UP, despite the early problems with ticket distribution and the heartburn amid old loyalists after 22 ‘outsiders’ who joined the party ahead of the polls were nominated as candidates.
Shah and the others believe that there is yet another ‘Modi wave’ gaining strength in the state, driven by the pro-poor narrative initiated by the PM with demonetisation last November. The party is also banking on central government schemes, such as the Ujjwala LPG scheme for families below the poverty line, the Mudra loan scheme for artisans and small entrepreneurs and the neem-coated urea supply to farmers, all pushed with great vigour in poll-bound UP.
Saffron strategists claim that two of seven rounds of polling in the state will be “weak” for the BJP, particularly in the Moradabad and Terai areas. Even there, Shah claims a “stark contrast” between Prime Minister Modi’s image and the efficient delivery of central schemes, and five years under Samajwadi rule. He dismisses UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s claims of development as belated and empty poll slogans.
He insists that 2016, the last year of the SP’s term, was the only period when one did not witness violent
lathicharges on farmer groups demanding urea. Shah claims that this was because of the Centre’s injunction to coat all urea supplied to farmers with neem to prevent the fertiliser from being diverted for use in the chemical industry or as a whitening agent in milk.
Besides ‘bad governance’, the BJP is also targeting the Akhilesh Yadav government for corruption. Party leaders believe that their campaign condemning the SP government as ‘loot-khasoot ki sarkar’ actually received a boost after Akhilesh opted to go with the Congress. “People want to know how Akhilesh joined hands with the corrupt Congress while talking of good governance and development,” says Kirtivardhan Singh, the BJP MP from Gonda.
Om Prakash Mathur, the BJP general secretary in charge of UP, says the party’s strategy is working. He points to the huge, euphoric crowds at BJP rallies. “Compare any of our election rallies with those of our rivals and you’ll know who’s winning,” he says.
Shah’s poll rally at Hasanpur in Amroha district on February 5 saw some 35,000 people stay put and hear him tear the SP and BSP to shreds, despite the pouring rain. Encouraged with the response, Shah even tweeted an image of the “jan sailaab (flood of humankind)” taken from his departing helicopter.
BJP strategists, including Shah, claim that the party has emerged as the main contender in a majority of the 400 assembly seats. The party’s UP spokesman, Chandramohan, says having conceded more than a hundred constituencies to the Congress, and his uncle Shivpal Yadav playing spoiler in another 100, Akhilesh is effectively in the reckoning in just 200 seats.
Saffron leaders are banking heavily on voter fatigue vis-à-vis the regional satraps of the SP and BSP. This, they hope, will make more voters buy into PM Modi’s promise of transforming “the destiny of Uttar Pradesh” and opt for the BJP as a party that could also drive the change from the Centre.
Aside from the dissension over allocation of tickets to ‘outsiders’, the lack of a chief ministerial face is perhaps the BJP’s other big handicap in the UP elections. But a senior party leader admitted that this was the only way to go because the “announcement of a CM would have invited more infighting” amid party ranks.
Taking no chances with UP, unlike in the 2015 Bihar assembly polls, the BJP has been careful about including local faces in its campaign in every constituency. And the campaign itself drew lessons from Bihar in crisscrossing the vast state with numerous video vans spreading the message of ‘UP ke Mann ki Baat’; and making a note of local concerns and aspirations, Arvind Kejriwal-style, via ballot boxes inviting suggestions from people in every segment. “Unlike Bihar, our campaign in UP does not talk of big-ticket ventures costing thousands of crores. We are talking about what people want,” says a party member.
Many pre-poll surveys predict that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party but remain shy of the halfway mark. Amit Shah, however, is confident that the voters of Uttar Pradesh will give what he is demanding—a two-thirds majority.