THE GREAT DISRUPTION
Old certainties are giving way, new ideas are being born, as the world lurches toward an era of great volatility. The India Today Conclave evaluated the unstoppable forces at work that are radically changing the landscape of the known world around us. A t
At the India Today Conclave 2017, eminent thought leaders contemplated the tumult of our times
THE PAST YEAR HAS BEEN as traumatic as it was dramatic. Nothing is as it used to be. It is no surprise that Post-Truth was the Oxford English Dictionary word of the year. Suddenly everything that is a lie is the truth, and everything that is true is a lie. The world is now being divided and defined differently. Left or Right is no longer the only binary. The divides are wide and widening: Open societies vs Closed ones, Rich vs Poor, Elites vs Masses, Nationalism vs Anti-nationalism, Freedom vs Censorship, Free Trade vs Protectionism. Considering all that has happened in the past year, our theme for Conclave 2017—The Great Disruption—is right on the button. What are these great disruptions that are transforming India and the world? I believe, fundamentally, there are five such forces at work. And in many ways, they are interconnected.
ANTI-GLOBALISATION
What are these great disruptions that are transforming India and the world? I believe, fundamentally, there are five such forces at work. And in many ways, they are interconnected. The first great disruption is the backlash to globalisation. There is little doubt that globalisation has benefited the world economy and pulled millions out of poverty, but one of its unintended consequences has been that it helped the elites more than the masses. In the age of multilateral trade treaties, many Americans came to view free trade as a job killer and an impediment to wage growth—concerns that were, in fact, rooted in reality. In America, between 1999 and 2011, cheap Chinese imports eliminated about half a million US manufacturing jobs, and perhaps as many as 2.2 million jobs in total.
No wonder, Donald Trump’s call for America First has resonated so well in his country. The whole outsourcing model of shipping jobs abroad is under threat, with serious consequences for our $150 billion software industry, which employs 10 million people. This would also seriously impact our export thrust and ‘Make in India’ initiative. The architecture of global trade as it has existed for the past 70 years is being challenged. In a way, it all started in June 2016 with Brexit, when the people of Britain decided to retreat into its shell. Even before that, there was talk that a global slump may be on the horizon.
THE NEW JOB KILLER
The second great disruption is technology. The pervasiveness of the internet is transforming the way we eat, live, shop, travel, and even the way we interact with each other. It has given rise to the sharing economy. This collaborative consumption, a hallmark of the millennials—and we have plenty of them— has changed the way we exist. It makes us use our resources more efficiently, but the result of all these changes is that it affects existing business models and, most importantly, jobs. Add to this the increasing use of automation, and the loss of jobs becomes the biggest disruptor in a nation’s political economy. I believe jobs is the biggest issue we are faced with in India today. Every year, 10 million youngsters become eligible for jobs which are simply not there. The performance of this government so far is dismal on this front. We are sitting on a time bomb of anger and frustration.
NO SECRETS ANYMORE
The third most important disruption has been information explosion. The smartphone means everyone has the world in the palm of their hands. It is the great democratiser. Everyone has the same access to information. Also, it means that everyone now knows everything about everyone. Add to that social media and you have a force multiplier. There are no more secrets anymore. It has meant that inequalities and inequities are now in the public domain. People in the villages now know how people live in the cities and what products are available and denied to them. This raises aspirations but also aggravates resentment. That is why, in every election there is a demand for development and good governance. People’s expectations are sky high as they are aware there are others who have a better life. In spite of healthy growth in the economy, the class divide is only widening. I don’t think we fully appreciate the effect this information explosion has on the minds of people who never had it before. Remember, all revolutions first start in the mind. On the flip side, there is greater transparency and accountability in public life. The slightest wrongdoing
is pounced upon by social media, and with over 600 news channels in India, there is nowhere for anyone to hide.
AGE OF MAXIMUM LEADERS
The fourth greatest disruption is the assertion of identities. These could be regional, linguistic, sexual, communal, and even casteist. We have seen this most acutely in India with the rise of caste quota agitations, the protests on campuses against assaults on freedoms, an increasingly polarised political discourse, where even in Parliament disruptions happen with monotonous regularity. Democracy is our most precious gift and our representatives should give it more respect.
The fifth great disruption is the rise of Maximum Leaders. Trump as the president of the United States has both houses of Congress on his side, unlike Barack Obama who was hamstrung for eight years. Xi Jinping in China has emerged as the most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping, in a country that is now a certified superpower. His neighbour, Vladimir Putin, has an iron grip on his country, and an imperialist vision for Russia that would rival that of the tsars. We, of course, have our own Maximum Leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a man who through sheer hard work and force of will dominates Indian politics. He is bigger than his party. He towers over his ministerial colleagues and the Opposition. He remains completely unchallenged. He is, as we have found, the Disruptor-in-Chief. Ever since he has been in office from May 2014, he has been pushing change in every direction.
All these Maximum Leaders have the potential to cause serious disruption, for better or worse, within their own countries and in the world order. India is a complex country to govern, with all its intricacies, diversity and its noisy democracy. We have done well in some ways, but still have a long way to go. India is just about achieving 70 per cent literacy that China reached in the ’80s, and our per capita income is what they had 15 years ago.
My personal belief is that the biggest obstacle to India’s growth is its slothful, unresponsive, wasteful bureaucracy. It is the delivering arm of any government. However great government plans are, and however noble its intention, it is likely to get lost or at best diluted in our bureaucratic maze. Unless the bureaucracy is streamlined, I believe, not much will change. Grand announcements will remain just that. And we will merely trundle along. We don’t need to cut the red tape, we need to throw away the tape most of the time. No political leader till date has had the courage to make a frontal attack on the bureaucracy. It is just too large. At best, they have done homeopathic treatment when surgery is required. We are a smart, creative, hardworking people. The government just needs to provide an enabling environment and let us do the rest.
The Conclave is a celebration of ideas and a feast for your mind. There are here movers and shakers from every field of human endeavour. Partake of it in the following pages with joy.