INDIA’S NEW SILK ROADS
The recent ceremony to flag off a consignment of Indian wheat for Afghanistan, the first shipment through the Chabahar port after the conclusion of the ‘ Transport and Transit’ agreement among India, Iran and Afghanistan in May 2016, was an event of considerable import and potential. It came close on the heels of the India- Afghanistan airfreight corridor launched in June this year.
The partition of India in 1947 severed our trade and transit routes westward that had been in use for centuries. The loss was not felt acutely at the time since our foreign trade was low in volume and national frontiers across the globe highly restrictive. The scenario changed in the post- Cold War era when in an increasingly globalising world, the imperatives of intra- and inter- regional connectivity came to the fore. Our growing export capacity, the need to engage with the newly independent countries in Central Asia and our return to Afghanistan as an important trade and economic partner following the fall of the Taliban regime also accentuated the need for restoration of transit routes westward. However, in a classic case of cutting its nose to spite its face, Pakistan has continued to shun and indeed sabotage lucrative trade and transit links with India, both bilaterally and in the SAARC framework. This posture also sits well with their policy to deny any role to India in Afghanistan, a country over which they wish to maintain a stranglehold.
The concept of Iran as transit took root initially in the 1990s in the context of our access to Central Asia. The use of Chabahar port for access to Afghanistan and beyond remained the subject of protracted negotiations since 2003, but not much headway was made, primarily because of the American sanctions against Iran. The Iran nuclear deal, however, changed that situation, leading to the signing of the 2016 trilateral agreement on use of the Chabahar port and India’s commitment to invest $ 500 million for its development and that of related infrastructure. The port links up through the Iranian road network to the Afghan border town of Zaranj in Nimruz province from where we built a 200- km road to Delaram in the neighbouring Farah province at a cost of over Rs 600 crore and loss of lives of Indian and Afghan security personnel to Taliban attacks. It was handed over to Afghanistan in 2009 and links up with the Garland highway connecting major Afghan cities.
In the above backdrop, the wheat shipment is an important landmark in our quest to bypass Pakistan and its short- sighted obduracy to develop a transit route to Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond ( linking up with Russia and Europe). However, moving forward, there could be some uncertainties. First, timely completion of the port development project and putting in place a seamless transit process would be necessary to sustain the momentum. A process riddled with administrative hurdles can rob a shorter transit route of its advantage vis- a- vis longer, but more efficient routes. Second, the use of the route will be dependent on Iran and Afghanistan. As our dependence on it grows, the Iranians, who are tough negotiators, may seek to leverage the geographic advantage in the context of their overall relationship with us. However, the lure of an active port and deft handling by our diplomacy should take care of this aspect. Further, due to the precarious security situation in Afghanistan, the proposed transit route could face threats similar to those faced by the Chinese CPEC in Pakistan. Another concern would be US President Donald Trump’s decision not to certify that Iran is adhering to all the terms of the nuclear deal, thereby raising the spectre of fresh sanctions. One can only hope that the Americans will continue to stand by the reassuring words of secretary Rex Tillerson during his recent visit to India that they do not wish to interfere with legitimate business activities or agreements that are in place. Will his boss be equally considerate?
The use of Chabahar port for access to Afghanistan and beyond had remained a subject of protracted India- Iran talks since 2003