Warm-up Match before the Finals
In an assembly election year, the BJP and Congress pull out all the stops for the Ajmer, Alwar, Mandalgarh bypolls
Three imminent byelections, to the Ajmer and Alwar parliamentary constituencies and the Mandalgarh assembly seat, could well signal the way Rajasthan will go in the legislative assembly elections expected in December. All the three contests will be straight fights between the Vasundhara Raje-led ruling BJP and the Congress, which is looking to make a comeback under Sachin Pilot.
With the stakes high, Pilot has sagaciously opted to field Raghu Sharma, a confidant of former chief minister Ashok Gehlot, from Ajmer (Pilot’s home constituency). In doing so, he has not only ensured that the usually inimical Gehlot is compelled to participate in the campaign, but also that the bypoll result does not become a verdict on his own (Pilot’s) leadership. In Alwar, too, the young party chief has had his way in nominating his man, Karan Singh Yadav, as the Congress candidate in place of former Union minister Jitendra Singh, who lost the seat in 2014.
In contrast, Raje has acted predictably in nominating Ramswarup Lamba, son of the Jat leader whose demise necessitated the bypoll in Ajmer. And in Alwar, Pilot effectively forced her to bring on Jaswant Singh Yadav in the hope of splitting the Yadav votes.
For the assembly bypoll in Mandalgarh, Raje is backing Shakti Singh Hada, a Rajput, against the Congress’s Vikram Dhakar, who lost in 2013 but crucially has the backing of former Union minister C.P. Joshi.
Analysts say the outcome of the bypolls will have a bearing on how much
say each of the bigwigs—Raje, Pilot, Gehlot and Joshi—will have in their parties in the allocation of tickets for the assembly elections. It could even be a pointer to whether Raje can pull off a second term running. The only time a government in the state has ruled for two consecutive terms (since 1990) was when Bhairon Singh Shekhawat led the BJP to a slender victory in 1993.
The elections in 2017 have been a mixed bag for the BJP and Congress. Raje comfortably bagged the Dholpur assembly bypoll in April 2017. But under Pilot, the Congress won 27 of the 41 seats in byelections to zila parishads, panchayat samitis and municipal wards on December 19.
Buoyed by the Congress’s showing in the Gujarat assembly elections last month, Pilot is pushing hard. “We are fighting a government and not just a party,” he told india today, pointing to the chief minister’s frequent forays into Alwar and Ajmer through November and December. Pilot himself has been working to build contacts both within and beyond his party. Raje claims “we will win as we did in Dholpur”, but she knows it’s a much bigger challenge.
Besides the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh activists on the ground, Raje is, like never before, banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to work his charm on the electorate. The state government is pulling out all the stops for a grand show on January 16, when Modi arrives to lay the foundation stone for a new refinery in Barmer.
Although it’s a big challenge for both Raje and Pilot, some BJP leaders, like state forest minister Gajendra Singh Khimsar, believe the stakes are higher for the ruling party. The BJP, he points out, currently holds all the three seats. In contrast, with nothing to lose, the Congress can only gain.
BESIDES THE RSS, RAJE IS BANKING HEAVILY ON PM MODI TO BOOST HER CAMPAIGN