MP: UMBRELLA COALITION
The Congress is pursuing pre-poll alliances with the BSP, Samajwadi Party and Gondwana Gantantra Party to consolidate the anti-BJP vote
The Madhya Pradesh assembly elections later this year could see the Congress contest in a pre-poll alliance with three other opposition parties—the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP)— in a bid to prevent a division of the anti-BJP vote. It’s not official yet, but the state Congress leadership, after initial discussions, appears inclined to give 20-30 seats to the prospective allies. The BSP, which polled 6.4 per cent votes and won four seats in the 2013 election, is reportedly driving a hard bargain. Besides the four constituencies it holds, the party wants 12 seats where it had finished a runner-up as well as another 14 where it expects to do well this year. The Congress is banking on state president Kamal Nath, who enjoys a good rapport with Mayawati, to contain the BSP’s demand to under 20 seats.
Encouraged by his party’s successful electoral arrangement with the BSP in Uttar Pradesh, which ensured the BJP’s defeat in the Kairana byelection on May 31 and earlier in Gorakhpur and Phulpur, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has hinted at a broad anti-BJP alliance. Last month, Yadav toured the Rewa, Satna and Sidhi districts bordering Uttar Pradesh and met ticket aspirants. However, the SP doesn’t have much of a presence in the state where its leaders are mostly Congress rebels. The SP also managed to rope in K.K. Singh, the late Arjun Singh’s nephew and a former SP MLA, to its fold. Singh had left the party to join the BJP five years ago, but quit to return to the SP.
But analysts say the BSP could make significant inroads in Gwalior, Chambal and Rewa, which have sizeable Scheduled Castes and Other Backward Classes voters. The death of Dalits in alleged firing by upper caste people during the protests in Gwalior and Chambal against changes in the
SC/ ST Act is expected to consolidate Scheduled Caste votes in these areas.
The GGP, a tribal outfit that failed to win any seats in 2013 but polled 3.6 per cent votes, is influential in the Mahakoshal and Vindhya regions. Leader of the Opposition Ajay Singh is keen on a Congress-GGP tie-up to prevent a split in tribal votes.
But will the proposed alliances translate into gains for the partners? The Congress’s calculations are based on assumptions that the SCs and STs were its traditional vote bank and will hopefully return to the party. Its prospective alliance with the BSP and GGP is designed to draw SC and ST voters away from the BJP. Over the years, however, the BJP has made inroads into the SC and ST communities and holds a majority of the 35 SC reserved and 47 ST reserved seats in the state. To counter the Congress strategy, the BJP has recruited Phool Singh Baraiya, a Dalit leader who heads a splinter group of BSP defectors.
In the 2013 assembly elections, the BJP polled 45.2 per cent votes against the Congress’s 36.8 per cent. The Congress will need a 5 per cent swing to turn the tide in its favour. Deepak Babaria, the AICC general secretary in charge of Madhya Pradesh, says the Congress is open to alliances with “all like-minded parties”.
Kamal Nath was more explicit: “Alliances are of many kinds. It could be an understanding on a particular seat, for example. We are in talks with parties and are also viewing 2018 with [general election] 2019 in mind.”
THE BSP, WHICH WON FOUR SEATS IN 2013, REPORTEDLY WANTS 30 SEATS IN THE ALLIANCE