THE KIM TRUMP DEAL
The mercurial American president might leverage his ‘success’ with North Korea to come down hard on India and extract concessions in areas at variance with US objectives
US President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un create history at the Singapore summit. What does this handshake mean for India?
IT WAS WITHOUT DOUBT HISTRIONICS
of the grandest scale. Donald Trump looked smug as he made history by shaking hands with Kim Jong-un on June 12 at a Singapore luxury resort. In doing so, he became the first American president to hold a summit meeting with a North Korean head of state. The two leaders were a study in contrast—Trump at 72 with his wavy blond hair and Kim a portly 34 with his dark hiphop bouffant. One was the leader of the free world, the other an epitome of the unfree one. But they had much in common too. Apart from their affluent upbringing, both have displayed their megalomaniacal impulses as rulers of their respective countries. To be fair to Trump, he is only a bully and has never indulged in the kind of brutal repression that the young North Korean supremo unleashed in his country. With their fierce rhetoric, both leaders had brought the world the closest it has been to a nuclear Armageddon since the perilous Cold War years.
At the summit, though, neither of the leaders roared. Instead they appeared more like well-fed pussycats purring at each other as they discussed the nitty-gritty of a nuclear deal that had eluded the world for close to 25 years. Apart from patting Kim on the back to show bonhomie, Trump gave him a peek of his presidential limousine and even played a Hollywood styled video on an iPad for him that presented the North Korean leader with two choices: to go down in history as a leader who took his country to greater prosperity or destroy it by engaging in a futile nuclear conflict with the US and the world. Rarely had diplomacy been conducted with the bluster and braggadocio
Trump exhibited in his tango with Kim.
The US president has lived up to his campaign boast that he will bring Kim to the negotiating table. In some senses, Trump had very little option as during his presidency North Korea not only detonated a hydrogen bomb but also developed missile capability to strike the US. However, the text of the agreement they signed after their summit made his promise of denuclearising North Korea suspect. While it did commit Kim to a process of complete denuclearisation, neither a road map nor a time frame has been spelt out, leaving too many loose ends and exit routes. As nuclear expert Ashley Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC, put it, “The summit saw a great deal of posturing but very little of substance. We now have what is claimed to be a tasty pudding but we don’t know what it tastes like.” Another US expert, Michael Krepon, founder-president of the Stimson Center, was more appreciative, stating, “The mushroom clouds are receding—the summit has made war less likely in Korea and is a huge benefit to the world. That is Trump’s achievement.”
Experts were mixed in their reactions on how Trump’s Korean caper would impact the subcontinent. Former National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon believes that Kim got the better of Trump in the deal. His point: “This was really like a mountain producing a mole. If you read the final text, you will find that Kim gave nothing away in terms of denuclearisation but in turn got recognition, legitimacy, space and a degree of independence from China. It even got Japan and South Korea worried about Trump going off and doing his own thing. He even tore up an agreement that he had with G-7. He is shaking everything loose and India must decide what it wants and go out and get it irrespective.” Pakistan expert Moeed Yusuf, director, South Asia programme, United States Institute of Peace, regards the deal as “a huge positive step” but says that “to succeed, Trump would have to deal with the demand side for proliferation rather than just trying to get North Korea to roll back its nuclear programme. What does North Korea get by giving up its nukes? That is key.” As for the subcontinent, Yusuf says, “Currently, Trump has much more to do with China and the G-7 countries rather than focus on our issues.”
SHOULD TRUMP’S KOREAN CAPER WORRY INDIA?
Yet Trump’s outreach to North Korea, merely months after he threatened to rain down “fire and fury”, underlines the unprecedented uncertainty that he has injected into the world. This has myriad ramifications for India, from an ongoing realignment of major power relations to a fluid Asian security environment. While Trump may be preoccupied with dealing with China, Russia, US allies and other woes of the world, India’s policymakers are watchful of the unconventional, some say belligerent and brash, way the US president conducts foreign policy. Experts are concerned that Trump, emboldened by his self-proclaimed success in Korean diplomacy, may come down hard on India if it doesn’t cooperate with what he considers his key objectives.
On the nuclear front, India’s bid to get a full membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) may not get the kind of unconditional support US gave it in the past. Trump’s transactional approach to issues may see him demand concessions on trade—having carped openly about the imbalance in favour of India—or expect conclusion of defence deals in return. So far, Trump has been tough on Pakistan about statesponsored terrorism, but he is as keen on reaching a settlement in Afghanistan for which Islamabad’s cooperation remains key. In the last days of the
THE SUMMIT SAW GREAT POSTURING BUT LITTLE OF SUBSTANCE. WE NOW SEEM TO HAVE A TASTY PUDDING BUT WE DON’T KNOW HOW IT TASTES — ASHLEY TELLIS Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Obama presidency, there was even talk of offering Pakistan an India-type nuclear deal where it would lose its pariah status but in return commit to stringent safeguards on proliferation of nuclear technology and gradually give up its weapons. But with India expressing its displeasure, the US put such plans on the back-burner. With Trump, however, India can never be sure when he will spring a surprise and bring it back on the table if he wants to strike a deal in Afghanistan and push for Pakistan to dismantle its terror apparatus.
Another trigger that could see Trump call for reducing the salience of nuclear weapons in the subcontinent is a Mumbaitype attack resulting in a military faceoff between India and Pakistan. Though Trump had talked about brokering a deal in Kashmir in his campaign speeches, he may not try to play peacemaker in the subcontinent till he can show tangible success in Korea. Menon advises, “India should slap down firmly any attempt by Trump or his administration to play a broker in the subcontinent. Barack Obama tried and he was firmly dissuaded from doing so.” Yet, as Krepon points out, if Trump shows a modicum of success in Korea, world powers may think that if war can be prevented in East Asia, why can’t they work towards preventing a nuclear conflagration in South Asia, the most dangerous place in the world? India, though, has reason to be happy over the North Korean deal as it hopes it will cut off the proliferation network that flourished between Islamabad and Pyongyang that saw clandestine transfer of both nuclear and missile technology between the two countries, especially in the 1990s. Also, India welcomes a return to a rule-based nuclear order.
THE DEFENCE PUSH
Early in July, external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman will fly to Washington DC to engage jointly with their counterparts in what is termed as a 2+2 initiative to cut through red tape and work on major initiatives the two countries had agreed upon. These include extraordinary cooperation in defence technology and cyber warfare apart from the purchase of cutting-edge armaments. Yet, in the past months, a major irritant has appeared that may put India on the wrong side of Trump: the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) passed in August 2017 and which came into effect this January. CAATSA targets countries doing business with Russian, Iranian and North Korean defence firms. It has massive implications for India, which is one of Russia’s largest military partners, with a number of defence deals in the pipeline for buying long-range anti-aircraft missiles, utility helicopters, frigates and leasing a nuclear-powered attack submarine, all
THE MUSHROOM CLOUDS ARE RECEDING—THE SUMMIT HAS MADE WAR LESS LIKELY IN KOREA AND IS A HUGE BENEFIT TO THE WORLD. THAT IS TRUMP’S ACHIEVEMENT — MICHAEL KREPON Founder-president, The Stimson Center