SON-SHINE DAYS
Rahul Gandhi goes digital to take the war right into the BJP camp, but will his new charisma translate into big gains for the Congress in the 2019 polls?
ON AUGUST 9, BJP PRESIDENT AMIT SHAH tweeted: “Rahul ji, when you are free from winking and disrupting Parliament, give some time to facts as well. The NDA government, through a Cabinet decision and in Parliament, has ensured the strongest amendment to the [SC/ ST] Act. Why are you protesting that?”
Shah was reacting to Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s protest earlier in the day at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar against the Narendra Modi government’s alleged attempts to make the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act ‘toothless’. “The prime minister has no space for Dalits in his heart,” Rahul declared even as Parliament passed a bill to overturn an April order by the Supreme Court, which had diluted certain safeguards in the SC/ST Act.
For the next two days, Rahul and his team looked for ‘facts’ and stumbled upon an india today report on crimes against Scheduled Castes across the country. On August 11, Rahul not only tweeted the report, but also said his “fact check” will wake up Messrs Modi and Shah from their slumber. His team was satisfied that an appropriate response had been given to the BJP president.
This is the new combative Rahul who doesn’t shy away from taking the battle to the opposite camp. For every criticism directed at him, he is eager to throw a counter. His public speeches have a new aggressive register—Prime Minister Modi is now ‘Mr 56’ and Shah is his ‘best buddy’. In the past seven months, he has challenged Modi from across the country—Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh—even as he continues the daily fisticuffs on Twitter. The line of attack is the alleged corruption by Modi and his colleagues, unemployment, atrocities against SCs/ STs and farmers’ distress. “He travels across the country, speaks on diverse issues and is forthright and candid,” says Congress Rajya Sabha MP Abhishek Singhvi. “When he speaks of Rafale or jobs, he does not mince words; he takes names and hits where it hurts.”
Former Union minister and Congress Working Committee (CWC) member Jitin Prasada concurs: “Rahul Gandhi has questioned and challenged the Modi government’s policies in the past four years. His increasing popularity shows the people have realised the Modi government is only about false promises.”
The social media engagement has earned big dividends for ‘Brand Rahul’, as evident from the india today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll. However, the rise in his personal equity has not yet translated into expected seats in
elections for his party. The MOTN survey shows that the Congress is likely to win less than 100 seats if general elections are held today, though 27 per cent respondents find Rahul best suited to become the next PM, as against 49 per cent for Modi. The gap has significantly narrowed since the January 2017 MOTN, when Modi got the support of 65 per cent respondents and Rahul only 10 per cent.
What’s most encouraging for the Gandhi scion is that 46 per cent respondents believe that, among opposition leaders, he is the best alternative to Modi, and 38 per cent say he is the best choice to lead a grand alliance against the BJP in 2019. His closest competitor, Mamata Banerjee, garners support from 14 per cent respondents.
Even Twitterverse reflects his growing popularity—with 7.38 million followers, he is the second most followed opposition leader after Arvind Kejriwal (13.9 million). With Kejriwal’s national appeal shrinking and Mamata a distant second (2.91 million followers), Rahul has established his firm grip on the anti-BJP discourse in cyberspace. However, it’s still an uneven battlefield, as the Twitter popular-
ity of BJP bigwigs shows—Modi (43.5 million followers), Amit Shah (11.5 million), Sushma Swaraj (11.8 million) and Rajnath Singh (11.4 million).
“These results are no surprise at all, and are an understatement of people’s appreciation for Rahul Gandhi and what he stands for,” says Congress Rajya Sabha MP Rajeev Gowda. “As Modi’s track record of failure becomes starkly visible, people will opt for the genuine focus on development and inclusiveness that Rahul Gandhi represents.” Inspired by the higher ratings of Rahul over Modi in southern India, Gowda doesn’t rule out a repeat of the 2004 Lok Sabha election verdict. “In some ways, the support for Rahul Gandhi in the south reminds us of 2004, when it was south India that propelled the Congress and UPA to power even as India was supposedly shining under Vajpayee,” he says.
This phase of Rahul’s evolution—mostly through digital traction—began in the run-up to the Gujarat assembly elections in December 2017. The unprecedented success of the party’s social media campaign ‘Vikas gando thai gayo chhe’ (development has gone crazy), highlighting the failures of the BJP government in Gujarat, prompted Rahul to seriously take to social media warfare. A new social media team, headed by film actor Divya Spandana, revamped the party’s digital presence while the research team, headed by investment banker-turned-political economist Praveen Chakravarty, supplied regular ammunition against the Modi government. The team got a shot in the arm as media entrepreneur Nikhil Alva, son of Congress veteran Margaret Alva, joined forces.
Says a Congress insider, “Rahul started devoting hours regularly to improvise his posts, based on interactions with the public and party workers. He is witty and has a terrific sense of humour.” Rahul’s aides claim that the coinage ‘Gabbar Singh Tax’ to define the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was inspired by one such conversation in Gujarat.
But not everyone sees this as a positive development. One school of thought is that Rahul has picked up everything that’s wrong with Modi. “Rahul is aggressive on social media, isn’t wary of compromising facts, as one can see from his Shikanji comment in Madhya Pradesh or statements on the Rafale deal, and even gets down to drama, as we saw in the Lok Sabha when he hugged Modi. What he has not understood is that he is still an amateur in a game Modi has mastered,” says an election strategist who did not want to be named.
Reality check
Several party seniors say there is a vast gap between Rahul’s performance in the realpolitik realm and the virtual world. Work on rebuilding and restructuring the party is moving at a slow pace, with the Congress reduced to insignificance in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu. There is no major plan to revive the party in the northeastern states either.
Against his promise of ushering in young leaders, the average age in the 46-member CWC, announced by Rahul on July 17, is 63, excluding ex officio members, with 12 members above 70. Nine of the so-called young turks are dynasts or from royal families. The only young leader without any political lineage to find a berth in the committee is 43-year-old parliamentarian Rajeev Satav.
Rahul’s critics in the party point to his “legendary slow decision-making”, which has often cost the party in elections. The decision to appoint Kamal Nath as Madhya Pradesh Congress president was taken way too late, leaving little room for a structured fight against the BJP in the forthcoming elections, claim three CWC members.
In Rajasthan, which also goes to polls this year, Rahul has decided against announcing a chief ministerial candidate, but former chief minister Ashok Gehlot has already staked a claim to the post and is waging a covert war against state unit president and Rahul’s choice Sachin Pilot. “The uncertainty in Rajasthan and Digvijaya Singh’s sabotage in Madhya Pradesh may actually help the BJP snatch victory from the jaws of defeat,” says one party general secretary.
High stakes
Yet several others in the party believe the Congress’s revival will begin from these two big states that together account for 54 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, the BJP won 52 of them. “We will certainly win in Rajasthan under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership,” says Pilot. “He has been raising issues that affect commoners and the downtrodden. The rise in his popularity is a reflection of the public mood.” Avinash Pande, Congress general secretary in charge of Rajasthan, says Rahul hugging Modi in Parliament was not drama, rather it reflected his belief in inclusiveness and dialogue. “People want a respite from the vicious environment created by the BJP. They will vote for the Congress this time,” Pande says.
Despite these rhetorical statements, there is awareness in the Congress brass that Rahul is streets behind Modi’s pan-India appeal, and his ability to swing votes in a two-cornered contest is questionable. As evident in the Karnataka elections, the Congress is ready to play second fiddle to other parties in the interest of keeping the BJP out of power.
Rahul emerging as the most acceptable alternative to Modi in the MOTN survey will make Congress leaders happy, but the party has realised the dangers of Rahul staking a claim to the prime ministerial post. It will only antagonise potential allies such as Mamata Banerjee.
Rahul’s abilities as a consensus builder also came into question as the party failed to garner enough support for its candidate in the election to the post of Rajya Sabha deputy chairperson. There has been no sustained effort by the Congress to reach out to fence-sitters, such as the Biju Janata Dal and Telangana Rashtra Samithi, for the anti-BJP grand alliance. “There is no need to be jubilant about Rahul being chosen as the best alternative to Modi; the TINA factor is working for Rahul as well, as beyond him, there is Mamata and Mayawati,” says the election strategist.
Congress leaders hope Rahul will rise to the occasion and become the pivot of opposition unity. “If you draw a line from Kashmir to Kanyakumari, to the centre and left of that line, the Congress is in a strong position to take on the BJP and demonstrate that its 2014 Lok Sabha sweep was a fluke. To the right of that line, alliances with strong regional and national parties will ensure that the nation will soon be liberated from the miseries unleashed by the Modi government,” says Gowda.
On paper, this is a plausible electoral outcome. But to get the poll math right, Rahul must first strike the right chemistry with voters and allies.